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1 Proudly different THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE SHOWN TO POTENTIAL CLIENTS. 1

2 Foreword Commercial Mortgage brokers predict positive 2018, however concerns highlighted around regulatory changes Once again our annual Broker Barometer* has produced some interesting findings, as well as highlighting some concerns that need to be addressed by the commercial mortgage industry, particularly surrounding regulatory changes and the impact they will have on portfolio and HMO landlords. Karen Bennett Managing Director, Commercial Mortgages Shawbrook Bank 1. Positive outlook for 2018 Despite commercial mortgage brokers surveyed citing Brexit as one of the biggest issues likely to impact their clients in 2018, respondents were overwhelmingly upbeat about the year ahead with 78 percent reporting to be fairly or very confident about the lending environment (up from 72 percent in 2017**). The wave of positivity continues with 27 percent of respondents citing a healthy 30 percent plus increase in business volumes in the second half of 2017, compared with 2016, with 69 percent of brokers either very or fairly confident about business growth in More education needed to avoid investors sleepwalking into a problem The commercial brokers surveyed cited regulatory change as the biggest challenge facing both their businesses and their clients in Worryingly, despite the impact of PRA rule changes cited as the number one concern, there is a distinct lack of awareness in the investor market with 61 percent of brokers stating that their clients were aware that the rules had changed, but did not understand what the changes are, and 28 percent citing that their clients were not aware of the changes at all. This highlights the critical need for more education in the investor market, the benefits of which are twofold. Firstly, it should hopefully prevent clients from sleepwalking into a problem and the subsequent issues that will arise as a result. Secondly, according to our research, increased awareness is leading to more enquiries as investors turn to brokers for more information. Two good reasons why the industry should be doing all it can to ensure that investors are aware of these changes. 3. Lack of awareness of impending licensing legislation amongst HMO landlords On a similar note, 59 percent of brokers surveyed stated that HMO landlords were not aware of new licensing laws that may come into effect this year (although government is yet to finalise proposals). Additionally, 58 percent of brokers thought that HMO landlords were not aware that should these laws come into effect, that they would be required to change their property(s) in order to obtain a mandatory license. Once again, bringing to the forefront the need for further education in the market, especially as this is likely to represent a significant change. Despite the need for further education needed, overall I believe that the results from the Broker Barometer are largely positive and mark the robustness of the commercial mortgage market going forward into A heartfelt thanks goes to all those who took part in the survey, as you can see the results are incredibly insightful and highlight real issues in the industry that we can all work together to try and resolve. Here s to a great 2018! * Shawbrook - Survey with 211 respondents that took place in November ** Shawbrook Broker Barometer Survey with 366 respondents that took place in November 2016.

3 How would you compare business volumes of the second half of 2017 with 2016? 28% 19% 18% 16% 11% 8% Declined No change +10% +20% +30% +50% 3

4 1% 2% 2% 15% 25% When thinking ahead to 2018, what do you see as the biggest challenge facing your business? 5% 26% 16% Regulatory change Valuation issues Rising interest rates Stagnating house prices Lending restrictions Lead generation 4% 4% Diversifying into new markets Client window shopping Obtaining fees from the client Brexit 4

5 Knock on effects of PRA/FCA regulation 29.5% Impact of stamp duty changes 9% Mortgage Interest Tax Relief 11.5% Thinking ahead to 2018, what do you think will be the biggest issues impacting your clients? Impact of Brexit Valuation issues Interest rates Securing tenants Additional licensing 0.5% 3.5% 11% 17% 16% Tenant arrears 2% 5

6 The lending environment Very confident 13.5% Fairly confident 65% Indifferent 13.5% Fairly concerned 8% Very concerned 0% Thinking ahead to 2018, how confident are you about the following? Business growth Very confident Fairly confident Indifferent 17% 16.5% 52% The UK economy post Brexit Very confident Fairly confident Indifferent 6% 22% 43% Fairly concerned 14.5% Fairly concerned 25% Very concerned 0% Very concerned 4% 6

7 Have you experienced a decline in the availability of credit following the January 2017 PRA-led affordability changes? 60% 34% 6% Yes No Don t know 7

8 28% 2% 9% In your view, are portfolio landlords aware of the PRA rule changes that were implemented at the end of September this year? 61% Yes, they are aware and understand the changes Yes, they are aware but do not understand all the changes No, they are not aware Don t know 8

9 Have you seen an increase of portfolio landlords coming to you following the second round of PRA changes? 44% Yes 50% No 6% Don t know 9

10 Have you seen an increase in portfolio landlords coming to you because they have been declined a loan by another provider? 5% 43% 52% Yes No Don t know 10

11 How do you feel the collective PRA changes will affect your business? 15% Portfolio landlords will be put off by the changes and may want to downsize 11% Banks will pull out of the portfolio landlord market and focus on the simpler customers with 1-3 mortgages 58% It should help my business as landlords need further professional guidance 13% I don t think it will have any affect on my business 3% Other 11

12 Do you think portfolio landlords understand the impact of interest tax relief changes to their self-assessment forms and their tax payments? 83% I think landlords have some understanding of the tax implications 11% I think landlords have no understanding of the tax implications 4% I think landlords fully understand the tax implications 2% I don t know 12

13 Have you seen an increase of clients enquiring about HMO loans in 2017? 3% 1% 21% 32% 43% Yes, I have seen a significant increase of enquires for HMO loans Yes, I have seen a slight increase of enquires for HMO loans I haven t seen any increase or decrease of enquires for HMO loans I have seen a slight decrease of enquires for HMO loans I have seen a significant decrease of enquires for HMO loans 13

14 26% Yes 59% No In your experience, do you feel that HMO landlords are aware of new licensing laws which may come into effect next Spring? (although the government has yet to finalise the proposals) 15% Don t know 14

15 Do you feel that HMO landlords are aware that they may have to make changes to their property to obtain a mandatory license? 27% 58% 15% Yes No Don t know 15

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