Downtown Circulator Service Economic Impact Assessment

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1 CAPITOL MARKET RESEARCH Downtown Circulator Service Economic Impact Assessment Prepared for Ms. Laura Huffman Assistant City Manager City of Austin 301 W. 2 nd Street, Suite 2030 Austin, Texas By Capitol Market Research, Inc. 605 Brazos, Suite 300 Austin, Texas On August 16, 2006

8 0 CBD Market Area 2005 TCAD Land Uses Miles 11TH ST W 10TH ST W 9TH ST W 6TH ST LAMAR BLVD 7TH ST SAN ANTONIO ST CONGRESS AVE GUADALUPE ST COLORADO ST BOWIE ST TRINITY ST W 7TH ST WEST AVE RIO GRANDE ST NUECES ST W 6TH ST NECHES ST SAN JACINTO BLVD LAVACA ST BRAZOS ST W 5TH ST 4TH ST RED RIVER W 3RD ST W 2ND ST CESAR CHAVEZ ST SINGLE-FAMILY HOTEL PARKING GARAGE UTILITY APARTMENT MIXED USES GOVERNMENT BLDG VACANT LOT CONDO CHURCH PARK/OPEN SPACE WAREHOUSE OFFICE ARTS/REC UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS RETAIL RESTAURANT/BAR SCHOOL BANK PARKING LOT RAIL ROAD c:\projects\2006\cbd Circulator\land_use.mxd Prepared by Capitol Market Research, June 2006

11 CBD Market Area Projects Under Construction Project Type Commercial 12TH S 11TH ST 0 Residential Miles C2 GUADALUPE ST W 6TH ST LAMAR BLVD TRINITY ST 7TH ST SAN ANTONIO ST CONGRESS AVE 4TH ST C1 R2 R3 RED RIVER R1 C3 C4 CESAR CHAVEZ ST c:\projects\2006\cbd Circulator\construction.mxd Prepared by Capitol Market Research, June 2006

13 CBD Market Area Planned Projects Project Type 12TH ST 11TH ST 0 Residential Commercial Mixed Use Government Utility Miles C4 GUADALUPE ST R8 R4 W 6TH ST LAMAR BLVD TRINITY ST 7TH ST SAN ANTONIO ST R7 C3 CONGRESS AVE 4TH ST R6 M2 M3 R5 M1 C1 RED RIVER C2 R3 R2 I CESAR CHAVEZ ST R1 c:\projects\2006\cbd Circulator\planned.mxd Prepared by Capitol Market Research, June 2006

38 Downtown Austin Market Area Existing Apartments! 8 Mo-Pac! Congress Rio Grande 4. AMLI Downtown 5. Cloister West 6. Congress Square 7. Courtyard Apts 8. Gables Town Lake 9. Gables West Avenue 10. Littlefield Quarters 0 12th 11. Oak Creek Village 12. Park Terrace 13. Riverside Place 14. Riverside Square 15. Statehouse on Congress 16. Stoneridge 17. The Tuscany 18. The Willows 19. Timbercreek 20. Townhollow Miles! 9! 3! 10 Red River Robert E Lee! 5! 16! 20 Lamar! 12 Cesar Chavez Barton Springs 1st 18! 19 Riverside! 6!! 14 1! 13! 15! 4 Congress I 35 Oltorf! 11! 7! 2 c:\projects\2006\cbd Circulator\existing_apts.mxd Prepared by Capitol Market Research, July 2006

41 16.05 Downtown Market Area 2000 Census Tracts Miles Mo-Pac 12th 7 12 Lamar Cesar Chavez 11 Red River Robert E Lee Barton Springs Riverside I 35 1st Congress Oltorf c:\projects\2006\cbd Circulator\census.mxd Prepared by Capitol Market Research, July 2006

52 Table (26) CBD and Central Austin Condo Sales by Price Range January December 2005 Number of Sales Price Class $1 to $99, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 to $249, $250,000 to $299, $300,000 to $349, $350,000 to $399, $400,000 to $499, $500,000 to $599, $600,000 to $699, $700, Total Source: MLS data and developer interviews; compiled by Capitol Market Research, July 2006 CBD and Central Austin Condo Sales by Price Range January December 2005 Percent of Sales Price Class $1 to $99, % 37.1% 33.5% 23.1% 18.5% 14.5% 11.2% $100,000 to $149, % 25.3% 31.4% 34.5% 22.9% 21.5% 16.6% $150,000 to $199, % 15.3% 15.5% 22.1% 19.4% 16.2% 16.2% $200,000 to $249, % 7.3% 6.7% 6.3% 9.1% 9.4% 12.4% $250,000 to $299, % 4.8% 3.4% 6.1% 8.1% 11.0% 15.3% $300,000 to $349, % 2.2% 3.4% 2.9% 4.5% 7.3% 9.6% $350,000 to $399, % 3.5% 1.5% 3.4% 4.9% 5.3% 6.0% $400,000 to $499, % 2.7% 2.4% 0.2% 2.6% 5.8% 4.8% $500,000 to $599, % 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 3.4% 2.5% 2.2% $600,000 to $699, % 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 2.9% 1.8% 1.6% $700, % 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 3.7% 4.6% 4.1% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Number of Sales Downtown Condo Sales by Price Range $1 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 to $249,999 $250,000 to $299,999 $300,000 to $349,999 $350,000 to $399,999 $400,000 to $499,999 $500,000 to $599,999 $600,000 to $699,999 $700, sales by price.xls

59 ! 5 Downtown Market Area ABoR MLS Boundaries Koenig! Active! 0 Sold Out Miles Mo-Pac 45th! 8! 14 1B Lamar 38th! 9! 15 12! 7 I 35 4 Martin Luther King Jr Lamar 1. 5 Fifty Five 2. Austin City Lofts 3. Avenue Lofts 4. Brazos Lofts 5. Broadacres on Jim Hogg 6. Brown Building 7. Caswell Lofts 8. District Guadalupe Milago 11. Nokonah 12. Piazza Navona 13. Plaza Lofts 14. Satsuma Texan Tower 16. Towers at Townlake 17. Villas at Townlake Cesar Chavez! 11!! 6 2! 13 3!!! 4 1! 17! 10! 16 c:\projects\2006\cbd Circulator\mls.mxd Prepared by Capitol Market Research, July 2006

64 Central Market Area Planned Condo Product! 19! 12! Miles 1. 2nd and Congress Urban Village 3. 4th and Nueces Congress Condos Congress Ave. 6. AMOA Condos 7. Block Caswell Lofts 9. Congress at 3rd St. 10. Four Seasons Residential 11. Gables Park Plaza (LIC) 12. Guadalupe Guadalupe Condos 14. House of Tutors 15. La Vista on Lavaca 16. Neches Oak Tower 17. Presidio Condos 18. Spring 19. Texan Tower 20. The Lofts at Shoal Creek 21. The Shore Rio Grande 23. The Milago! 18! 11! 8 Lamar! 20! 3 Cesar Chavez! 14! 17! 6! 7! 22! 9! 1! 15 11th Martin Luther King Jr! 2! 5! 16! 4 Dean Keeton Red River I-35 Congress! 10! 21! 23 c:\projects\2006\cbd Circulator\plannedcondos.mxd Prepared by Capitol Market Research, July 2006

76 Downtown Market Area Existing Retail N IH Hannig Row 3. Littlefield Mall 4. Sampson-Hendricks 5. 2nd Street Retail Miles 12th West 8th! 1 Lamar Cesar Chavez! 5 Guadalupe 5th! 4! 3! 2 San Jacinto Congress Red River I 35 Barton Springs Riv c:\projects\2006\cbd Circulator\existing_ret.mxd Prepared by Capitol Market Research, June 2006

78 Downtown Market Area Planned Retail Projects 1. 5th and Congress 2. AMLI Block Austin Market District 4. Block Congress Condos 6. Seaholm Power Plant 12th Miles West! 3! 4 8th Lamar! 6 Cesar Chavez Guadalupe! 2 5th Congress! 5! 1 San Jacinto Red River I 35 Barton Springs Riverside 1st c:\projects\2006\cbd Circulator\planned_retail.mxd Prepared by Capitol Market Research, June 2006

84 Year Current Base Value Table (44) Comparison of Values With New Construction & Rail Influence Rail Corridor Study Area Base Plus Value of Projects Under Construction/Planned Base, UC. Plus Value of Future Office, MF Condo & Retail Base, UC Plus Value of Future Office, Apartment & Condo and Rail Influence 2006 $1,410,851,213 $1,477,904,678 $1,477,904,678 $1,477,904, $1,410,851,213 $1,518,960,029 $1,518,960,029 $1,518,960, $1,410,851,213 $1,755,846,443 $1,755,846,443 $1,755,846, $1,410,851,213 $2,540,740,127 $2,540,740,127 $2,540,740, $1,410,851,213 $2,540,740,127 $2,765,325,718 $2,893,669, $1,410,851,213 $2,540,740,127 $3,116,676,917 $3,353,343, $1,410,851,213 $2,540,740,127 $3,377,816,763 $3,723,401, $1,410,851,213 $2,540,740,127 $3,649,596,792 $4,108,975, $1,410,851,213 $2,540,740,127 $3,932,585,735 $4,510,894, $1,410,851,213 $2,540,740,127 $4,112,460,091 $4,775,132,904 Source: Travis Central Appraisal District, 2005 Tax Roll; City of Austin Emerging Projects July 31,2006 Forecasts Prepared by Capitol Market Research, August 2006 New Development.xls $5,300,000,000 $4,800,000,000 $4,300,000,000 $3,800,000,000 $3,300,000,000 $2,800,000,000 $2,300,000,000 $1,800,000,000 $1,300,000,000 $800,000, Current Base Base Plus Projects Under Construction Base Plus Future Office and MF Base With Future Office and MF and Rail Influence 77

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