CapitaLand Investors Day Presentation by Jason Leow CEO, CapitaLand China

Transcription

1 CapitaLand Investors Day Presentation by Jason Leow CEO, CapitaLand China 12 1

2 Disclaimer This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual future performance, outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements as a result of a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Representative examples of these factors include (without limitation) general industry and economic conditions, interest rate trends, cost of capital and capital availability, availability of real estate properties, competition from other companies and venues for the sale/distribution of goods and services, shifts in customer demands, customers and partners, changes in operating expenses, including employee wages, benefits and training, governmental and public policy changes and the continued availability of financing in the amounts and the terms necessary to support future business. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which are based on current view of management on future events. 2

3 3Q 2013 Performance Update Residential Business in China Raffles City and Integrated Developments Concluding Remarks Agenda

4 3Q 2013 Performance Update Raffles City Shanghai, China

5 Residential Units* Sales Value (RMB million) 3Q 2013 Residential Sales Performance YoY sales remains healthy Launched ~700 units for sale in 3Q % of launched units 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,978 21% Y-o-Y 2, YTD Sep 2012 YTD Sep ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,167 4,204 1,047 1,959 1,266 1,776 1, YTD Sep 2012 YTD Sep st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Units sold includes options issued up to 30 Sep 2013 * Includes Raffles City strata apartments. 5

6 Residential Units Value (RMB million) Residential Homes Handed Over 2,000 1,500 1, % Y-o-Y 1, % Y-o-Y 5, , YTD Sep 2012 YTD Sep st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,107 1,498 1, , YTD Sep 2012 YTD Sep st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter YTD Sep 2013 TOP Projects: The Paragon, Shanghai The Pinnacle, Shanghai Beaufort, Beijing The Loft, Chengdu 6

7 New Residential Launch The Metropolis, Kunshan Launch of new block 272 units launched on Oct 26 Sold ~ 95% of launched units within first 4 days. Sales value ~ RMB316m The Metropolis, Kunshan 7

8 Recent Construction Start in Shanghai Nanmatou, Shanghai Phase 2 Construction Started Construction schedule on track: piling completed, structural construction in progress 8

9 Residential Business in China The Pinnacle, Shanghai, China

10 Completed Consolidation of Residential Business in China CapitaLand China Total Pipeline: >65k units, >7m sqm in GFA CapitaLand China Residential Projects Former CapitaValueHomes Projects CapitaLand Township Projects 10

11 Consolidated Residential Portfolio Pipeline sufficient for the next 4 to 5 years 27 residential projects Total pipeline of >65k units and GFA of >7m sqm Deepening presence in 5 city clusters Beijing Tianjin Shenyang Chengdu Xi an Wuhan Wuxi Kunshan Shanghai Hangzhou Ningbo Guangzhou Foshan 11

12 CapitaLand Township Projects 5 projects in 4 cities; ~39k units and GFA ~4m sqm Lake Botanica, Shenyang (GFA ~1.1m sqm, 18% launched) Parc Botanica, Chengdu (GFA ~362m sqm, 19% launched) La Botanica, Xi an (GFA ~2.9m sqm, 25% launched) 12 Central Park City, Wuxi (GFA ~655k sqm, 19% launched) % Launch based on units launched against project s estimated total units as at Sep The Botanica, Chengdu GFA ~1m sqm, 98% launched)

13 Former CapitaValueHomes 4 projects in 3 cities; ~6,300 units and GFA ~627k sqm New Horizon & Wanxiang Plot II, Shanghai The Lakeside, Wuhan 13 The Rivervale, Guangzhou

14 Healthy Project Pipeline in China CapitaLand China consolidated: >65k units and GFA >7m sqm Dolce Vita, Guangzhou The Metropolis, Kunshan The Paragon, Shanghai 14 Beaufort, Beijing The Loft, Chengdu ipark, Shenzhen

15 Long-term Benefits from Consolidation Post-consolidation: Residential to focus on mass market, 1 st time home buyers and up graders CapitaLand China Capabilities to manage large scale projects 15 Opportunities for economies of scale and bulk purchase

16 Total Assets Allocation Well balanced Portfolio of Trading vs Long Term Strategic Investments 8% Investment Properties* 39% Residential 53% 16 As at Sep 2013, CLC Total Assets is S$8.3b * 23% of Investment Properties relate to RCs strata assets

17 Datansha Island Introduction Artist Impression of Datansha Island Datansha Island which comprises of a land area of 3.55 km 2 is located in the western part of downtown Guangzhou. The Project will be developed in three main phases. CapitaLand has been assisting the Liwan District Government in the urban planning of the Project. The Master Plan was approved in Oct CapitaLand has entered into a framework cooperation agreement with Guangzhou Liwan District Government to jointly develop the island project of approximately 3.55 km 2. 17

18 Datansha Island Site Conditions Village Houses Warehouses School School Metro Station Residences Village Commercial Village Commercial Metro Interchange F&B Belt 18 Village Houses Total Area of Island: 3.55 sq km Residences

19 Datansha Island Master Plan Total Saleable Developments of approx. 1,971k sqm Site Area ( 000 sqm ) GFA ( 000 sqm) % of total GFA Saleable Residential (15 plots) 313 1,417 23% Saleable Commercial (6 plots) % Resettlement Homes % Village Commercial 291 1,562 26% Government Housing % Public Facilities % Military, Car Park, Plaza % Greenery/ Water bodies 751-0% Road, Network & Others 841-0% Not for Development 672 1,271 21% Total 3,554 6, % 19 Administrative Office Military Other Public Land Commercial Public Greenery Warehouse Culture Ecological Greenery Water Bodies Sport Plaza Resettlement Residential Hospital Car Park Resettlement Commercial Educational Support Facilities Residential Transport Facilities Primary/Sec School Environment Facilities

20 Zhang Minjie, CapitaLand Building People Photography Competition 2013 Raffles City and Integrated Developments Raffles City Chengdu, China

21 Raffles City Portfolio Outlook Continuous growth of quality assets CFA 000 sm 3000 CFA : 3.1m sqm GFA: 2.2m sqm Value: RMB 62b CFA : 0.8m sqm GFA: 0.6m sqm Value: RMB 17b CFA : 1.9m sqm GFA: 1.4m sqm Value: RMB 41b RCCQ RCCN RCH RCSZ Note: GFA includes basement retail area RCB RCS / & beyond 2017 beyond RCN RCC

22 Raffles City Portfolio Pipeline of Quality Assets with Stable Rental Income Stabilized Newly Opened Under Construction Raffles City Shanghai Raffles City Chengdu Raffles City Changning Raffles City Chongqing Raffles City Beijing Raffles City Ningbo Raffles City Hangzhou Raffles City Shenzhen Year / Raffles City development with a construction floor area of 3.1m sqm 22

23 CapitaLand s Significant Stake in Raffles City Projects Raffles City Projects CL s Total Effective Stake CL s Stake Held through CLC Portfolio Value (100% basis) Completed Projects RMB Bil Raffles City Shanghai 27.8% 22.3% 6.6 Raffles City Beijing 49.8% 40.0% 3.6 Raffles City Ningbo 49.8% 40.0% 2.4 Projects Under Development Raffles City Chengdu 49.8% 40.0% 4.8 Raffles City Hangzhou 49.8% 40.0% 6.5 Raffles City Changning 36.8% 25.6% 9.8 Raffles City Shenzhen 73.0% 73.0% 7.1 Raffles City Chongqing 51.7% 31.3% 21.7 The above stake and values are as at 30 September 2013 * Amount includes strata assets of RMB 22.2 Bil (~S$ 4.6B), approx 35% of portfolio value TOTAL: 62.5 * S$ 12.9B * 23

24 Stabilised Asset Raffles City Shanghai Raffles City Shanghai Full committed occupancy for retail mall and office tower Reconfiguration of larger anchor tenant space into smaller units Annualised NPI yield on cost ~18 % New tenants and active Marcom activities 24

25 Stabilised Asset Raffles City Beijing Raffles City Beijing Stable performance Over 99% committed occupancy for retail mall and office tower Above 90% occupancy for serviced residences New brands & trade remix in 3Q 2013 Annualised NPI yield on cost ~13 % New tenants; brands include CK Performance, Fossil, Speedo 25

26 Performance Snapshot of Stabilised Assets Raffles City Shanghai Retail Footfall (mil) Tenant Sales (RMB mil) Total NPI (RMB mil) ,150 1,093 1, ,050 1, Raffles City Beijing Retail Footfall (mil) Tenant Sales RMB'm Total NPI (RMB mil) CapitaLand CapitaLand Presentation Presentation

27 Newly Operational Assets Raffles City Chengdu - Strong committed occupancy of over 99% for retail mall Celebrated 1 st year anniversary, with total footfall of 11 million shoppers since opening - T1 office block completed in late June T2 office block achieved 57%* leasing commitment - Opening of Ascott Raffles City Chengdu in 4Q * As at 11

28 Newly Operational Assets Raffles City Ningbo Stable performance of retail mall Committed occupancy of 97% Opening of anchor tenant (including supermarket) has boosted sales and shopper traffic Growing occupancy for office tower Committed occupancy of 79%* Mix of domestic as well as international tenants 28 * As at 8

29 Asset Under Development Raffles City Hangzhou Site Area Podium: Retail (B1- L16) 40,335 sqm 116,000 sqm T1: Office (L8-L16) 27,567 sqm T1: Svc Resi (L18-L31) 26,000 sqm T1: SOHO (L33-L59) 33,000 sqm T2: Office (L7-L24) 41,000 sqm T2: Hotel (L26-L50) 45,000 sqm T2: Apts (L52-L57) 10,000 sqm Total GFA 283,567 sqm Plot Ratio 7.03 Car Park 1,249 Lots Total CFA 392,868 sqm 29

30 Asset Under Development Raffles City Hangzhou Raffles City Hangzhou Target Opening in % structural completion 30

31 Asset Under Development Raffles City Shenzhen Site Area Apartments Office Retail Hotel Total GFA Car Park Total CFA 53,725 sqm 72,729 sqm 54,575 sqm 88,835 sqm 21,095 sqm 237,500 sqm 2,021Lots 399,444 sqm Phase 3 Phase 1 Phase 3 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 2 (Raffles City) 31

32 Asset Under Development Raffles City Shenzhen Phase 1: ipark Target handover of Block B in 4Q 2013 Raffles City Shenzhen Target Opening in 2016 Phase 2: Raffles City Shenzhen Construction progress on track Phase 3 32

33 Asset Under Development Raffles City Changning Site Area Office T1 Office T2 Office T3 Retail Other Public Facilities Total GFA Preservation Buildings Other Facilities 60,845 sqm 76,692 sqm 30,175 sqm 26,240 sqm 103,914 sqm 155 sqm 237,113 sqm 5,553 sqm 12,623 sqm Plot Ratio 3.9 Car Park 1,249 Lots Total CFA 362,602 sqm 33

34 Asset Under Development Raffles City Changning Aerial view: 17% completion Raffles City Changning Target Opening in 2016 East Sector West Sector 34

35 Asset Under Development Raffles City Chongqing Site Area 91,782 sqm Office 154,000 sqm Hotel 69,000 sqm Serviced Apartment 30,000 sqm Residential 340,000 sqm Retail 224,000 sqm Total GFA 817,000 sqm Transport Hub 35,800 sqm Bus Terminal 17,500 sqm Subway Station 5,100 sqm Ferry Terminal 13,200 sqm Plot Ratio 8.9 Car Park 3,400 Lots (B1,B2,B3) 35 Max Height 550m (AMSL) Total CFA 1.1 million sqm Footnote: GFA gross floor area; CFA construction floor CapitaLand area Presentation AMSL above mean sea level

36 Asset Under Development Raffles City Chongqing 11% excavation work completed Raffles City Chongqing Target Opening in % shoring piles completed 36

37 Hanzhonglu Mixed-use Site 3-line metro interchange currently under construction Plot 95 (Office/Retail) Plot 92 (Residential) 37

38 Zhang Minjie, CapitaLand Building People Photography Competition 2013 Concluding Remarks Raffles City Chengdu, China

39 Concluding Remarks 1. Improve long-term ROE 2. Deepen presence in 5 city clusters 3. Focus on execution to deliver shareholder value 4. Seek out new opportunities in residential and mixed developments 39

40 Strategy for Sustainable Growth Improving Long Term ROE Optimal Mix Trading and Investment Assets 50:50 Where to focus? Focus on Key cities Exposure to Tier 1 and Tier 2/3 Cities 70:30 How to build a sustainable and competitive business? Target real demand for residential First time home buyers & Up-graders Continue to build and hone Mixed-use development capabilities Enhance operational competence and scale economies, as more mixed use projects are completed 40 40

41 Thank You 41

42 Appendix 1 Recent Land Transactions in Major Cities Appendix 2 China Macroeconomics Update Appendices

43 Appendix 1 - Recent Land Transactions in Major Cities 43

44 Beijing Residential Land Transaction 3Q2013 Plot8( 万科 ): RMB6,567psmppr ASP:10,000 Plot11/12( 北控 / 万通 ): RMB7,049psmppr ASP:11,000-20,000(apt) 15,000-30,000(villa) Residential Price-Capped Plot5( 中铁 ): RMB18,562psmppr Ceiling:19,000 Plot 6( 恒大 ): RMB6,927psmppr Ceiling:14,000 Plot 7 ( 万科 ): RMB19,347psmppr Asp:20,000(apt) 25,000-30,000(villa) Plot2( 中粮 ): RMB48,444psmppr ASP:50,000-60,000 Note: ASP is short for surrounding residential average selling price Plot3( 懋源 ): RMB45,819psmppr ASP:40,000-50,000 Plot1( 融创 ): RMB73,100psmppr ASP:50,000-70,000 Plot4( 恒大 ): RMB15,453psmppr Ceiling:22, Plot13( 万年基业 ): RMB19,463psmppr ASP:25,000 Plot9&10( 融创 ): RMB20,162psmppr ASP:34,000-37,000

45 Shanghai Residential Land Transaction 3Q2013 Plot 4 ( 名城 ): RMB8,341psmppr ASP:17,000 Plot 3 ( 安徽高速地产 ): RMB12,600psmppr ASP:20,000 Plot 2 ( 中铁 ): RMB10,753psmppr ASP:17,000 Plot 1 ( 泰禾 ): RMB24,003psmppr ASP:25,000 Residential Plot 8 ( 万科 ): RMB21,416psmppr ASP:26,000 Plot 5 ( 恒文投资 ): RMB14,106psmppr ASP:21,500 Plot 7 ( 嘉华 ): RMB40,106psmppr ASP:60,000 Plot 9 ( 阳光城 ): RMB18,437psmppr ASP:18,000 Plot 10 ( 保利 ): RMB14,086psmppr ASP:18,500 Plot 6 ( 卓涵 ): RMB15,433psmppr ASP:18,000 45

46 Guangzhou Residential Land Transaction Plot 2( 绿地 ) RMB 6,597psmppr ASP:9,000-10,000 Plot 1 ( 保利置业 ): RMB 4,563psmppr ASP:7,000-9,000 Plot 4 ( 越秀 ) RMB 9,761psmppr ASP:15,000-16, Plot 3( 保利置业 ) RMB 5,224 psmppr ASP:8,500

47 Chengdu Residential Land Transaction 3Q2013 4th Ring Rd NO. Site Winner 1 金牛区土桥村重庆东原 47 海亮 RMB7,950 psm ppr ASP:12,000 重庆东原 RMB6,790 psm ppr ASP: 9,300 重庆东原 RMB6,120 psm ppr ASP: 9,000 LOFT 2 3 rd Ring Rd 15 台湾远雄 RMB10,000 psm ppr ASP: 11,000 保利 RMB6,760psm ppr ASP: 13,000 中铁建 RMB7,840 psm ppr ASP: 20,000 建发 RMB7,530psm ppr ASP: 7,700 中铁八局 RMB3,412 psm ppr ASP: 8, nd Ring Rd 4 6 1st Ring Rd 四川蓝润 RMB5,100 psm ppr ASP: 8,000 RCC 保利 RMB6,820 psm ppr ASP: 13, 建发 RMB8,410 psm ppr ASP: 13,600 合能置业 RMB7,680 psm ppr ASP: 7,700 5 卓锦城 四川蓝润 RMB5,350 psm ppr ASP: 8,000 中粮 RMB7,920 psm ppr ASP: 13,700 中铁建 RMB6,000 psm ppr ASP: 8,400 成都交大工程 RMB5,500 psm ppr ASP: 9,600 华润 RMB7,870psm ppr ASP: 10,000 中铁 RMB5,030 psm ppr ASP: 11,500 卓锦万黛 2 青羊区万家湾 重庆东原 3 成华区北湖 7 号 中铁建 4 武侯区红牌楼 台湾远雄 5 成华区长春 4 组 成都交大工程 6 双流县华阳街道清河社区 中铁八局 7 成华区崔家店路 中粮 8 成华区青龙街道 四川蓝润实业 9 成华区青龙街道 四川蓝润实业 10 锦江区狮子山街道花果村 中铁 11 高新区大源片区 08 地块 建发 12 高新区大源片区 10 地块 合能 13 高新区大源片区 07 地块 建发 14 高新区大源片区 09 地块 中铁建 15 青羊区清波村 安徽海亮地产 16 高新区南部新区 05 号地块 保利 17 高新区南部新区 06 号地块 保利 18 锦江区花果村 华润

48 Chongqing Residential Land Transaction Residential Plot3&4&5( 朵力 ): RMB3,763psmppr ASP: 8,800 Plot9( 康田 ): RMB3,763psmppr ASP: 10,000 Plot8( 通用 ): RMB4,685psmppr ASP: 9,300 Plot2( 中房 ): RMB4,399psmppr ASP: 8,800 Plot10( 柏明 ): RMB4,863psmppr ASP: 8,100 Plot7( 美全 ): RMB6,630psmppr ASP: 10,000 Note: ASP stands for average selling price for surrounding residential projects Plot6( 钰鑫 ): RMB4,818psmppr ASP: 8,800 Plot1( 华润 ): RMB4,127psmppr ASP: 8,800 48

49 Appendix 2 China Macroeconomics Update 49

50 Beijing s 7-Point Property Measures On 23 October 2013, Beijing s Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced seven strengthening measures ( 京七条 ) to stabilize home prices in Beijing 7-Point Measures 京七条 1. Emphasize constructing and managing end-user commodity housing 高度重视自住型商品住房建设和管理工作 2. Proper planning to ensure land supply 加强计划管理, 确保土地供应 3. Unit size and pricing standards 合理确定套型面积和价格标准 4. Priorities given to family with Beijing hukou 明确销售对象 5. Speed up sales and registration management 加强销售和登记管理 6. Minimum holding period and appreciation tax 加强自住型商品住房的转让管理 DETAILS: Owner occupied Price-capped housing 自住型商品住房项 To be developed by private developers Target to supply no less than 20,000 units by 2013, and 50,000 in 2014 Sizes will be controlled with flat sizes generally below 90 sqm, and should not exceed 140 sqm ASP capped at 70% of prevailing market prices for comparable properties with similar location and quality Sold with priority to Beijing families or persons above 25 yr old with no existing home ownership Minimum holding period of five years, and capital gains tax of 30% after five years ELIGIBILITY Household Size (persons) Household Annual Income RMB Household Net Assets RMB 7. Severe punishment for illegal and fraudulent purchasing behavior 严肃查处违法违规骗购行为 Source: Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Below 3 Below RMB 88,000 4 and above Below RMB 116,000 Below RMB 570K Below RMB 760K 50

51 ASP (RMB psm) Sep-08 Beijing s 7-Point Property Measures: Minimal Impact Expected Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 30,000 Beijing: ASP by housing type sold 25,000 23,777 20,000 15,000 7,799 10,000 5,000 5,701 0 Private Commodity Housing Price-Capped Housing Economic Housing Source: Soufun 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Beijing: % Breakdown units sold by housing type 15.5% 4.9% 3.8% 6.2% 5.4% 9.8% 8.7% 17.3% 18.1% 13.0% 17.2% 29.3% 67.3% 86.4% 78.9% 64.4% 76.6% 77.2% (YTD Private Commodity Housing Price-Capped Housing Economic Housing Sep) 51 In first nine months of 2013, Beijing sold approx 88,602 residential units, of which only 11,506 (13%) were pricecapped homes: The pool of real demand for private housing remains substantial (77.2%) Current ASP gap between private commodity homes and price-capped housing very wide (>200%), and even if ASP is capped at 70% for this new price-capped program, unlikely to be any major shrinkage of private commodity housing pie, given the affordability of eligible price-capped buyers. Buyers of affordable housing are unlikely to be potential private commodity home buyers in the first place: Marginal buyers are low in numbers, and eligibility criteria prevents our target buyers from buying down. Given the pressure on profits due to price cap, there are concerns about the quality of such price-capped homes. We are of the view that CapitaLand China s strong focus on product quality and delivery will make a great difference to potential buyers of mid-high end homes.

52 Disposable Income per Capita in China Growing at Positive Rates Disposable Income per capita RMB YoY % 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Disposable Income per Capita 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 5,000 2% % China Tier 1 Average China YoY % (RHS) Tier 1 Average YoY % (RHS) China s disposable income per capita has been increasing at double digit rates for the past few years and looks set to continue so Tier 1 cities enjoy significantly higher levels of disposable income per capita than overall China; Growth rates of disposable income per capita slightly lower than nation-wide, given the maturity of these Tier 1 economies, but still displaying steady growth 52 Source: National Bureau of Statistics

53 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 China Home Prices Continue to Increase Whole of China 70 Medium and Large Cities 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% China - YoY % Change in ASP and GFA Sold Number of cities on YoY price Change Increase % -30% Decrease * Pre-sales ASP YoY % GFA Sold YoY % Nation-wide home prices and volume sold have generally increased YoY in 2013 to date, despite the property cooling measures announced in March 2013 On a Jan-Sep 2013 basis, China-wide average selling prices rose by approximately 9% this year In the latest September 2013 data release by the NBS, 69 cities out of 70 experienced YoY increases in home prices Tier 1 cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen reported more than 20% YoY gain in prices Source: Soufun & National Bureau of Statistics 53

54 Population (million) Urbanisation Drives Real Demand for Homes Urbanization Rate (%) % 52.6% 55.6% 61.0% 65.4% 68.7% % % E 2020E 2025E 2030E Urban population (LHS) Urbanization rate % (RHS) Source: National Bureau of Statistics & United Nations World Urbanization Prospects