New Development Report

Transcription

1 New Development Report 2018 First Quarter MANHATTAN $ 2,513 $ 2,185 $ 2, % YoY PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED PER SQ. FT. CLOSED 1% YoY 4.1% YoY BROOKLYN $ 1,475 PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE $ 1,413 PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED $ 1,409 0% YoY 5.3% YoY 3% YoY PER SQ. FT. CLOSED 6, % YoY 1, % YoY AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* *Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.

2 Summary Points $2,185 PSF In Manhattan, pricing for new development units entering into contract in Q fell 1.0% quarter-over-quarter and 1.5% year-over-year to $2,185 PSF. Avg. PPSF for closed new development rose 4.1% quarter-over-quarter to $2,152, boosted by closings at 432 Park Avenue, but remained essentially flat year-over-year. $1,413 PSF In Brooklyn, new development entering into contract averaged $1,413 PSF, remaining above $1,400 psf for the fourth consecutive quarter and up 3.82% year-over-year. However, bucking a trend of four consecutive rising quarters, Avg PPSF declined 5.29% quarter-over-quarter. Avg. PPSF for closed new development in Brooklyn rose 10.25% year-over-year to $1,409 as previous contract-signed pricing is beginning to be reflected in delivered units. This lag between contract-signed and closed pricing can take between 12 and 24 months to materialize in closed numbers. 16.2% The Upper West Side experienced the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in Average PPSF of any neighborhood in Manhattan at 16.2%, rising to $2,270, due primarily to contracts signed at 250 West 81st, Waterline Square, and 101 West 78th. Available Inventory in Manhattan 6,088 UNITS declined quarterover-quarter for the first time since Q The figure dropped 5.2% to 6,088 units, still up 8.23% year-over-year, marking a pause in what has been a two year trend of rising inventory. In Brooklyn available inventory jumped significantly, rising 100%, due almost entirely to the addition of 458 new units at Brooklyn Point (138 Willoughby) in Downtown Brooklyn. Total absorption in both Manhattan and Brooklyn was softer this quarter versus the same quarter last year. On a quarter-overquarter basis absorption ticked upward in comparison to a slow 280 UNITS Q In Manhattan, just over 280 units entered into contract in Q1 2018, an increase of 21.5% quarter-over-quarter and a decrease of 19.8% year-over-year. In Brooklyn, nearly 60 units entered into contract in Q1 2018, a 51.3% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 56.5% decrease year-over-year. This decrease reflects a lack of large projects launching in key neighborhoods in recent quarters, inhibiting supply in key price points below $2M. These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed within the same quarter. MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT. MANHATTAN Active $2,289 $1,485 Contract Signed $2,037 $1,341 PER SQ. FT. Closed $1,986 $1,383 Active $2,513 $1,475 Contract Signed $2,185 $1,413 MEDIAN PRICE Closed $2,152 $1,409 BROOKLYN Active $3,875,000 $1,700,000 Contract Signed $2,814,500 $1,600,000 Closed $2,850,000 $1,395,000 Active $6,363,804 $2,236,433 Contract Signed $4,252,318 $1,959,154 TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS) Closed $4,130,221 $1,709,905 Total 11,909 2,585 Units Available 6,088 1,330 % Closed or Contract Signed 48.9% 48.5% HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 2

3 Introduction HPDM is pleased to present our New Development Report for Q This report focuses exclusively on the NYC new development condominium market, and aims to be the only report of its kind presenting a comprehensive picture of new development activity. New development is unique from the overall real estate market in that closings often do not occur for 12 to 18 months after a buyer enters into contract. Therefore, to understand this market it is critical to track active listings, listings in contract, closed listings, as well as total inventory. This report analyzes Q as a whole and is a snapshot of current new development market conditions. In Manhattan, pricing for new development units entering into contract in Q fell 1.0% quarterover-quarter to $2,185 PSF, a 1.5% drop year-over-year. Avg. PPSF for closed new development units rose 4.1% quarter-over-quarter to $2,152, but fell 0.83% year-over-year. In Brooklyn, new development entering into contract averaged $1,413 PSF, falling 5.3% quarter-over-quarter, but rising 3.8% year-over-year as the longer price trend in Brooklyn is still rising. Avg. PPSF for closed new development Brooklyn rose 10.2% year-over-year to $1,409 as units entering contract during the rising price trend over the past several quarters are now being delivered. METHODOLOGY: All data is provided by proprietary Halstead Property Development Marketing research. This report tracks new development projects only, defined as those new to the market and currently selling sponsor units. Buildings that have fully sold out of sponsor units are not included, even though they may be newly built. Resale data is not included in this report. All listings were compiled as of 3/19/18. Total Inventory is defined as all units within new development projects that are currently listed as Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are currently listed as Active as well as those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 2018, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. By including currently unreleased units that are not yet listed as Active this data provides a unique and comprehensive analysis of the current new development market. TABLE OF CONTENTS MARKET OVERVIEW...5 MARKET OVERVIEW BY QUARTER... 6 MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT...7 ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE...8 PRICE POINT ANALYSIS... 9 TOTAL INVENTORY...11 FURTHER INSIGHT HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 3

4 GALERIE JACKSON AVE, LONG ISLAND CITY GalerieLIC.com

5 Market Overview Downtown continued to see the most development activity in Manhattan in Q with more than 240 units either entering into contract or closing. Next to Billionaire s Row, Downtown shows the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at $2,577. The highest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. for Contract Signed deals in Q occurred in the Upper West Side, with an average of $2,456 PSF, an increase of 23% quarter-over-quarter due to contracts signed at 250 West 81st Street, Waterline Square, and 101 West 78th Street. CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS NUMBER OF UNITS $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4, $6, $3, $2,000 $1,000 $1,188 $1,312 $2,390 $1,889 $2,227 $1,766 $2,142 $1,749 $2,073 $1,322 $2,165 $2,144 $1,373 $1, HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,515 $1,196 $1,232 $2,368 $2,226 $2,456 $1,963 $1,726 $2,023 $2,279 $2,330 $2,164 $1,810 $1,924 $2,000 $2,119 $1,777 $1,750 $1,964 $1,619 $5,868 $7,719 $3,911 $6,203 $2,446 $2,504 $2,038 $2,143 $1,908 $2,053 $2,577 $2,879 $2,156 $2,422 $2,165 $2,017 $1,475 $1,413 $1,409 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue *Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 5

6 Market Overview by Quarter The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter. In Q the Upper West Side experienced the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in Average PPSF at 16.2%, rising to $2,270, due primarily to contracts signed at 250 West 81st Street, Waterline Square, and 101 West 78th Street. Following the Upper West Side was the Upper East Side, rising 10.1% quarter-overquarter. Midtown East rose 1.2% quarter-over-quarter. Harlem, Downtown, and Midtown West each experienced declines from Q4 2017, with Harlem leading the downswing with an 18.2% decrease. Meanwhile, Avg. PPSF in Brooklyn experienced a modest 0.8% decrease quarter-over-quarter. CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. Q Q Q Q $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $5,109 $5,486 $7,661 $6,772 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,373 $1,117 $1,465 $1,199 $2,140 $2,032 $1,953 $2,270 $1,922 $1,875 $1,776 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* $1,956 $1,910 $1,987 $1,961 $1,885 $2,140 $1,958 $2,022 $2,047 $2,281 $2,341 $2,326 $2,161 $1,322 $1,378 $1,419 $1,410 MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** $2,325 $1,245 *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg. HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 6

7 Manhattan Neighborhood Insight Outside of Billionaire s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in Manhattan for Q was $3,385 PSF, achieved in the West Village with sales at 160 Leroy Street, followed by the Flatiron district at $3,096. The highest average Closed pricing outside of Billionaire s Row occurred in the West Village at $2,862 PSF due to deliveries at The Greenwich Lane and 150 Charles Street, followed closely by TriBeCa at $2,831 PSF. UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,515 $1,196 $1,232 $2,443 $2,460 $2,024 $2,279 $2,164 $1,810 $2,643 $2,705 $2,558 $5,868 $7,719 $6,203 $2,446 $2,038 $2,053 $2,528 $1,796 $2,654 $3,199 $2,361 $1,868 $1,571 $1,748 $1,980 $1,864 $1,556 Harlem UWS UES Midtown West Billionaire s Row* Midtown East Chelsea West Chelsea Hell s Kitchen Gramercy Park DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $3,023 $3,096 $2,768 $2,420 $2,270 $2,773 $2,024 $2,321 $2,875 $2,429 $2,581 $2,037 $2,831 $3,649 $3,385 $2,862 $2,042 $2,157 $1,954 $2,289 $1,823 $2,377 $2,720 $2,270 $1,772 Flatiron Greenwich Village SoHo NoHo TriBeCa West East LES Financial Village Village District *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 7

8 Analysis by Unit Type MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN In Q two-bedroom units continued to experience the most deal volume by unit type in Manhattan, with over 150 two-bedroom units entering into contract or closing. In Brooklyn, one-bedroom units saw the most deal volume with more than 45 units entering into contract or closing. Median Contract Signed pricing for two-bedrooms in remained essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at $2.69M rising 3.4% year-over-year. In Brooklyn, median Contract Signed pricing for one-bedrooms rose 2.0% quarter-over-qaurter to $950,000, and rose 3.8% year-over-year. In Manhattan, twobedrooms show the most Active listings at nearly 300, with three-bedrooms close behind at just over 250. Two-bedrooms also comprise the most Active listings in Brooklyn with 66, while three and one-bedrooms follow with 45 and 41 units respectively. MANHATTAN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE MANHATTAN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM $16M $14M $12M $10M $8M $6M $4M $2M ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS $994K $855K $922K $1.54M $1.48M $1.36M $3M $2.7M $2.68M $5.7M $4.51M $5.37M $8.53M $8.22M $6.4M $14.81M 46 $9.3M $7.81M NUMBER OF UNITS ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED 5 BED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED 5 BED BROOKLYN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE BROOKLYN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM $6M $5M $4M $3M $2M $1M ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS $780K $748K $564K $1.14M $950K $965K $1.66M $1.56M $1.61M $2.55M $2.67M $2.65M 22 $5.1M $4.54M NUMBER OF UNITS ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 8

9 Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN 38% of all Active new development listings in Manhattan remain priced above $5M, well below a high of 52% in Q Meanwhile, 13.4% of Active listings remain priced above $10M, down from 15.1% in Q In Manhattan, the total percentage of new development deals entering contract under $5M fell slightly to 78% from 81% in Q Conversely, the percentage of deals over $5M rose to 22% from 19% quarter-over-quarter. Q PRICE POINT MANHATTAN ACTIVE MANHATTAN CONTRACT SIGNED MANHATTAN CLOSED 10.4% 10.2% 16.4% 17.5% 7.7% 37.7% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M 8.9% 2.2% 5.6% 18.9% 13.4% 0% 7.7% 7.7% 23.1% 23.1% 38.5% 49.7% 21.9% 13.6% 10.5% 18.4% 25.9% 9.6% 22.7% 7.7% 13.4% 27.1% 24.7% 4.5% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M Q PRICE POINT BROOKLYN ACTIVE BROOKLYN CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN CLOSED 1.1% 4.2% 3.2% 18.9% 33.7% 38.9% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 9

10 15 HUBERT 15 HUBERT STREET, TRIBECA 15Hubert.com HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 10

11 294 Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN The largest amount of available inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Lower East Side with over 900 units, due to One Manhattan Square. The Upper West Side is next with over 600 units of available inventory due largely to Waterline Square and The Belnord. Neighborhoods with low available inventory (under 50 units) include Chelsea, Flatiron, and Greenwich Village. In Brooklyn, the highest available inventory is found in Downtown Brooklyn with the recent addition of Brooklyn Point at 138 Willoughby Street. Areas of low available inventory (under 40 units) include Clinton Hill and Carroll Gardens. The graphs below present total inventory by neighborhood along with the corresponding percentage of units sold. Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as either Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 2018, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by including unreleased units. MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD PERCENTAGE SOLD % % 1,454 66% 1,371 28% % % % 21 41% % % % % % % 34 64% % 65% % 1,192 61% 1, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BN. ROW* MIDTOWN EAST CHELSEA WEST CHELSEA HELL'S KITCHEN GRAM. PARK FLATIRON GREEN. VILLAGE SOHO NOHO TRIBECA WEST VILLAGE EAST VILLAGE LES FINANCIAL DISTRICT BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD PERCENTAGE SOLD % 100% % 71% 63% 68% % % % % % % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% BROOKLYN HEIGHTS CARROLL GARDENS CLINTON HILL BOERUM HILL DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN DUMBO GREENPOINT PROSPECT HEIGHTS PARK SLOPE WILLIAMSBURG *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 11

12 83 Further Insight MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development activity by volume in Q1 2018, followed by Brooklyn. In Manhattan, just over 280 units entered into contract in Q1 2018, an increase of 21.5% quarter-over-quarter and a decrease of 19.8% year-over-year. In Brooklyn, nearly 60 units entered into contract in Q1 2018, a 51.3% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 56.5% decrease year-over-year. This decrease reflects a lack of large projects launching in key neighborhoods in recent quarters, inhibiting supply in key price points below $2M. These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed within the same quarter. MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE Two-bedroom units in Brooklyn remain more efficiently sized than two-bedrooms in Manhattan, while one-bedrooms are becoming more similarly sized in each borough. Median size for two-bedroom units in Brooklyn is 1175 sq.ft, while the median for twobedroom units in Manhattan is 1420 sq. ft. Median size for one-bedroom units in Brooklyn is 723 sq.ft, while the median for one-bedroom units in Manhattan is 797 sq. ft. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED MANHATTAN BROOKLYN ,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,420 1,175 2,246 1,702 3,224 2,650 3,929 4,731 UES UWS MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST BN ROW* DOWNTOWN UPPER MANHATTAN BKLYN** STUDIO 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR 4 BR 5 BR *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg. HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2018 First Quarter Report 12

13 Contact 539 Fourth Street Park Slope 539FourthSt.com Skyview Riverdale Riverdale SkyviewRiverdale.com 445 Park Avenue, 10th Floor New York, NY HPDMNY.com Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Vice President of Research and Analytics The information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM s prior consent. For questions or comments regarding this report please contact research@hpdmny.com