Insights Into the Apartment Condominium Market in Eight Large Canadian Metropolitan Areas.

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1 Insights Into the Apartment Condominium Market in Eight Large Canadian Metropolitan Areas. METROPOLITAN CONDO OUTLOOK WINTER 215

2 Metropolitan Condo Outlook: Insights Into the Apartment Condominium Market in Eight Large Canadian Metropolitan Areas by Jane McIntyre and Robin Wiebe About The Conference Board of Canada We are: The foremost independent, not-for-profit, applied research organization in Canada. Objective and non-partisan. We do not lobby for specific interests. Funded exclusively through the fees we charge for services to the private and public sectors. Experts in running conferences but also at conducting, publishing, and disseminating research; helping people network; developing individual leadership skills; and building organizational capacity. Specialists in economic trends, as well as organizational performance and public policy issues. Not a government department or agency, although we are often hired to provide services for all levels of government. Independent from, but affiliated with, The Conference Board, Inc. of New York, which serves nearly 2, companies in 6 nations and has offices in Brussels and Hong Kong. 215 The Conference Board of Canada* Published in Canada All rights reserved Agreement No *Incorporated as AERIC Inc. The Conference Board of Canada and the torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board, Inc. About Genworth Canada Genworth MI Canada Inc. (TSX: MIC) through its subsidiary, Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company Canada (Genworth Canada), is the largest private residential mortgage insurer in Canada. The Company provides mortgage default insurance to Canadian residential mortgage lenders, making homeownership more accessible to first-time homebuyers. Genworth Canada differentiates itself through customer service excellence, innovative processing technology, and a robust risk management framework. For almost two decades, Genworth Canada has supported the housing market by providing thought leadership and a focus on the safety and soundness of the mortgage finance system. As at December 31, 214, Genworth Canada had $5.8 billion total assets and $3.3 billion total shareholders equity. Find out more at Preface This report from The Conference Board of Canada and Genworth Canada offers an in-depth analysis of the condominium market for eight large Canadian census metropolitan areas (CMAs). The report covers a wide range of condominium market statistics, such as starts, completions, absorptions, and prices. The main goal of this publication is to analyze the recent trends in the condo market in each of the eight CMAs, as well as where each of the eight markets is heading over the next five years. The eight census metropolitan areas covered are Québec, Montréal, Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Victoria. This report is published twice a year, in summer and winter. Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

3 Contents Overview...1 Metropolitan Insights...3 Québec... 3 Montréal Ottawa... 9 Toronto Calgary Edmonton Vancouver Victoria Definitions and Concepts...27 Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) Metropolitan Areas With Their Component Census Subdivisions... 28

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5 Overview Recent weakness in oil prices is now the big issue confronting Canada s economy. The Conference Board has downgraded its forecast for national gross domestic product growth to just 1.9 per cent in 215, from 2.4 per cent in 214. Business investment will be the weakest part of the Canadian economy in 215, particularly since the sharp decline in energy-related profits will curb oil companies capital budgets. Unsurprisingly, employment will remain soft. After an uninspiring gain of 121, jobs in 214, the labour market is expected to add just 187, positions in 215, a 1 per cent gain. Slightly better opportunities await in 216 when employment grows by 1.5 per cent, or 27, jobs. The unemployment rate will average 6.8 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 216. Still, demographics remain broadly supportive: the population continues to grow by more than 1 per cent per year, and the proportion of empty-nesters older than 55 years, who have frequently embraced condominium living, continues to rise. While the health of apartment condominium markets varies significantly by region, nowhere do we see a bubble about to burst. This is particularly true in Toronto. We have consistently forecast a soft landing for this city s apartment condominium market, and incoming data continue to support this view. On the other hand, the decline in oil prices has dramatically changed conditions in Alberta. Calgary s previously drum-tight market is now expected to soften considerably. In Apartment Condo Indicators Starts Resale sales Resale price ($)* f 216f f 216f f 216f Québec 1,31 1,81 1,113 1,485 1,534 1, , ,6 232, Montréal 1,36 9,21 9,39 1,945 11,123 11,493 27, , , Ottawa 1,418 1,559 1,573 1,349 1,368 1,49 261,41 264,59 271, Toronto 12,862 12,32 12,468 22,169 22,269 22, ,53 325, , Calgary 6,79 3,322 2,785 5,529 3,98 3, , 266, , Edmonton 1,646 1,165 1,47 3,187 2,364 2,45 219,392 29,359 28, Vancouver 8,666 8,933 9,344 13,469 13,793 13, , , , Victoria ,639 1,729 1, , , , *Average resale prices are used for Québec and Montréal; median resale prices are used for the rest of the metropolitan areas. Resale and average prices in Montréal and Québec include all condominium styles, not just apartments. Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

6 2 Metropolitan Condo Outlook Winter 215 Edmonton, the market was not as strained, but slowing is also expected. Vancouver s apartment market is improving, but remains burdened by high inventories of unsold units and subject to the vagaries of offshore demand. An improving job market in Victoria will support healthier demand for all forms of housing. Soft economies are limiting residential demand in Ottawa, Montréal, and Québec. Apartment markets in the latter two areas look overbuilt. Since many condominiums are sold to first-time buyers, the tightening of mortgage rules over the past few years has probably crimped demand for these units. All cities are expected to enjoy population increases during the next few years. Toronto is forecast to enjoy the largest absolute increase, of at least 1, residents per year. Meanwhile, Victoria has the largest share of 55-plus residents, at 35 per cent, but growth in this population segment will be strongest in Calgary and Edmonton. Mixed economic conditions will produce varying housing market outcomes. Real GDP will probably decline in Calgary and Edmonton this year, while advancing 1.5 per cent or more elsewhere. Toronto (2.8 per cent) and Vancouver (2.7 per cent) are expected to see relatively strong growth this year. Employment conditions will follow a similar pattern. Unsurprisingly, job markets in Calgary and Edmonton will weaken. Elsewhere, gains are expected to range from.4 per cent in Ottawa to 1.8 per cent in Toronto. Apartment sales rose in most cities last year, led by a 22 per cent gain in Calgary. Volumes declined in Montréal and Ottawa. For 215, the suddenly weak economic conditions in Calgary and Edmonton will pull sales sharply lower, with modest increases in other cities. A 5.5 per cent hike in Victoria leads expected gainers, although this city s volume remains well off its peak years in the mid-2s. Sales will inch higher in Toronto. Active listings rose everywhere last year except Edmonton and Victoria, which both saw double-digit percentage losses. Listings rose 22 per cent in Calgary, but no other city had an increase above 1 per cent. In 215, the Alberta cities are forecast to see listings swell as their markets slow. In the other six cities, most changes will be modest, although listings are forecast to drop 11 per cent in Ottawa. Last year s listings gains were at least partially responsible for a falling sales-toactive-listing ratio in our three easternmost cities and Calgary. Edmonton s ratio rose sharply for the second straight year, but will surrender these gains this year. Calgary s ratio is also expected to drop significantly. Toronto s ratio jumped nearly 3 percentage points on the strength of a healthy sales gain. Montréal, Québec, and Ottawa were buyers markets last year; the rest enjoyed balanced conditions. For 215, we expect balanced markets in Toronto, Vancouver, and Victoria. Buyers conditions will prevail elsewhere. Price changes will be similarly mixed. The median apartment price will decline in both Calgary and Edmonton, and the average price will rise only fractionally in Québec. Ottawa s price growth will also be languid. Average apartment price growth will accelerate in Montréal, but this seems due to aggressive incentives being offered to sell new units. Victoria s median price will rise the fastest among our eight cities, as it finally shakes off past declines. Prices will advance roughly 2 per cent in both Toronto and Vancouver. Although absorption of new units rose in 214 in five of our eight markets and was above the previous decade s average in six of the eight, even a small dip in the pace of new-unit take-up could quickly result in a big inventory run-up. Indeed, inventories of apartment condominiums and units under construction are high in many markets, notably Toronto, where builders will cut starts this year. Montréal is already oversupplied, and so starts will drop there as well. Alberta s softening economy will sharply curtail starts in Calgary and Edmonton. Gains are expected in Québec, Ottawa, Vancouver, and Victoria, but starts in these four cities will remain well off peak levels. Rising apartment prices will lift monthly mortgage charges everywhere except the Alberta cities. Victoria s relatively large price gain will boost this charge by 7.3 per cent, the biggest increase among our cities. Where carrying charges rise, they will do so faster than incomes, lifting their relative bite. This year s ratio of carrying costs to incomes will be highest in Vancouver, at 21.6 per cent, and lowest, 9.8 per cent, in Edmonton.

7 Winter 215 Metropolitan Condo Outlook 3 Québec Share of Population by Age Cohort f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Unit sales of apartment condominiums are expected to rise by 3.3 per cent this year, up for the second year in a row. This growth follows several years of declining sales, as buyers dealt with tighter mortgage rules and slower economic growth. Resale price growth will be modest in 215, but will strengthen to 1.4 per cent next year as demand grows and the market tightens. Although rising inventories have kept builders at bay for the past couple of years, the new apartment condominium market is also expected to see increased activity this year, with starts up 4.8 per cent. Unit sales of existing apartment condominiums increased 2.7 per cent in 214, after falling in five of the six previous years. The downturn in the resale market had been driven by slower economic growth and tighter mortgage rules. Buyers also felt the pinch of deteriorating affordability after several years of strong price growth. Indeed, by 213, the average price of a condominium in the Québec resale market topped $225,, a near doubling in just 1 years. However, while sales fell, strong prices kept sellers interested. Active listings jumped an average of 29.2 per cent per year from 21 to 213, lowering the sales-to-activelistings ratio to 5.6 per cent, down from 19 per cent in 29 and its lowest level since Accordingly, the resale market moved from a sellers position to a buyers one. Apartment Condo Construction (starts, units; share, per cent) Apartment condo starts (left) Condo starts as a share of multiple starts (right) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. With the resale market in buyers territory, price growth finally began to soften in 213 and 214, down to an annual average of 1.5 per cent. At the same time, economic growth and employment improved. As a result, buyers came back to Québec s resale apartment condominium market last year. Even though active listings began falling in the second quarter of 214, they still increased by 5.4 per cent for the year as a whole. As a result, the sales-to-active-listings ratio was roughly the same as in

8 4 Metropolitan Condo Outlook Winter 215 Affordability and Apartment Condo Sales (share, per cent; sales, units) Share of household income spent on mortgage (left) Existing apartment condo sales (right) f 17f 19f 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards. Sales to Active Listings and Price Change Sales-to-active-listings ratio (left) Average price growth (right) f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards Ratio of Condominium Starts to Population Growth (starts per one person increase in population) Current year 2 year average f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Employment Growth f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Unit sales continued to be strong through the fourth quarter of 214. But with weaker employment growth forecast for 215, unit sales of apartment condominiums are expected to slow through the first six months of this year, before rising again in the last half, to finish the year up 3.3 per cent in 215. Meanwhile, another year of modest price increases (resale condominium prices are forecast to grow by only.8 per cent), will further discourage sellers from entering the market. Active listings are expected to fall by 4.3 per cent this year. As the economy gains momentum next year, unit sales are expected to rise further, growing by an average of 2.1 per cent annually over 216 to 219. But as sellers contend with still-high inventory levels, listings are forecast to drop by 1.4 per cent in 216 and by 8 per cent on an average annual basis from 217 to 219. This will push the sales-to-active-listings ratio back up to 9 per cent by 219. In turn, price growth will improve to an average of 2.1 per cent per year through In the new apartment condominium market, starts reached a record 2,53 units in 212, following an average annual increase of 28.9 per cent since 28.

9 Winter 215 Metropolitan Condo Outlook 5 Resale Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Unit sales 1,725 1,446 1,485 1,534 1,565 1,597 1,63 1, Active listings 1,533 2,145 2,261 2,164 1,939 1,74 1,592 1, Months supply Average price ($) 22,86 225, , ,6 232, , ,57 247, Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. New Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Starts 2,53 1,546 1,31 1,81 1,113 1,15 1,183 1, Under construction 1,664 1, ,43 1,2 1,18 1,18 1, Completions 2,62 1,756 1,722 1,78 1,122 1,15 1,183 1, Complete and not absorbed Absorptions 2,44 2,127 1,778 1,32 1,181 1,159 1,18 1, Months supply Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Even though absorptions rose at the same time, supply still outstripped demand. As a result, inventories began to rise rapidly. In response, builders reduced starts of apartment condominiums by 38.9 per cent in 213 and a further 33.3 per cent last year, bringing them back down to just over 1, units last year, closer to their long-term average. Inventories subsequently began to fall in 214, even as absorptions slipped as well. Builders finished off 214 by increasing starts of apartment condominiums in the last quarter of the year. With inventories still on a downward trend and demand picking up in the resale market, starts are expected to rise modestly through the rest of this year as well. In total, starts are forecast to increase by 4.8 per cent in 214 and by 3 per cent in 216. Although absorptions are expected to fall this year and next, they will still outnumber completions. Accordingly, inventories will continue to edge down. Stable economic conditions will help keep builders in the new apartment condominium market through the following few years. Starts are expected to rise by an average of 3 per cent annually from 217 to 219, modest enough to keep inventories in check.

10 6 Metropolitan Condo Outlook Winter 215 Montréal Share of Population by Age Cohort f A weak economy and relatively poor affordability are hampering residential demand in Montréal. Both the city s overall resale market and its apartment condominium segment have recently experienced buyers conditions. Apartment price growth has also been sluggish. The new apartment market is also oversupplied, after a burst of starts earlier this decade and again last year. The resulting large number of units under construction will keep burgeoning builder stocks of unsold units high over the next few years. A moderate correction in both markets cannot be ruled out. Housing markets are languishing in Montréal s tepid economy. Although local GDP is forecast to rise by a 13-year high of 2.2 per cent in 215, this will still lag the national average. The local labour market continues to be soft, with a.4 per cent employment drop and an 8.2 per cent unemployment rate in 214 and only weak job growth and a modest unemployment rate decline on tap for 215. Montréal s population growth remains decent, but has decelerated and is expected to keep slowing. Rising interest rates in the medium term will also temper demand. Sales of existing apartment condominium units fell 3 per cent in 214, the third straight annual decline. This brought the annual total below 11, units for the first time since 26. Sales did strengthen slightly over Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Apartment Condo Construction (starts, units; share, per cent) 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Apartment condo starts (left) Condo starts as a share of multiple starts (right) f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. last summer, but a weak fourth quarter suggests only slight improvement in 215. We expect sales to rise roughly 2 per cent in 215 and similarly between 216 and 219. This will leave apartment sales below their all-time high of nearly 12,8 units, set in 211. Active apartment listings rose nearly 9 per cent in 214. Although this was strong growth by our eight-city standard, it was actually a local slowdown from increases averaging nearly 21 per cent during the previous three years. Such gains pushed listings to a record above

11 Winter 215 Metropolitan Condo Outlook 7 Affordability and Apartment Condo Sales (share, per cent; sales, units) Share of household income spent on mortgage (left) Existing apartment condo sales (right) 22 16, 2 14, 18 12, 16 1, 14 8, 12 6, f 17f 19f Sales to Active Listings and Price Change Sales-to-active-listings ratio (left) Average price growth (right) f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards. Ratio of Condominium Starts to Population Growth (starts per one person increase in population) Current year 2 year average f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Employment Growth f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 13, units. For 215, a fractional increase will bump listings to a fresh high of nearly 13,1 units. Listings are forecast to hover near this level during the subsequent few years. Easing sales and soaring listings in recent years cut the sales-to-active-listings ratio to only 7 per cent in 214, less than half this decade s peak of nearly 16 per cent hit in 21 and signalling a buyers market. Since sales are forecast to rise only slightly faster than listings, the ratio will change little in 215. Only slight increases are forecast in the medium term as listings hover and sales rise slowly. Despite the buyers conditions facing Montréal condominiums, their average price advanced 2.2 per cent last year. This was historically soft, since condominium prices rose by an average of nearly 5 per cent annually during the prior decade, but still improved upon a 1 per cent dip in 213. We expect similarly modest price gains over the next few years, starting with a 2.5 per cent rise in 215. Although principle and interest payments on the average apartment last year trailed Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, and Victoria among the eight cities covered in this report, typically low household incomes in Montréal made this payment consume 17.4 per cent of average

12 8 Metropolitan Condo Outlook Winter 215 Resale Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Unit sales 12,469 11,288 1,945 11,123 11,493 11,73 11,89 11, Active listings 9,856 11,974 13,22 13,95 12,94 12,952 13,9 13, Months supply Average price ($) 267, ,498 27, , , , ,62 32, Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. New Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Starts 11,81 8,728 1,36 9,21 9,39 9,337 9,375 9, Under construction 13,12 12,673 11,663 1,981 11,92 11,117 11,117 11, Completions 1,361 9,585 11,732 8,924 9,243 9,351 9,353 9, Complete and not absorbed 1,663 1,886 2,459 2,432 2,311 2,218 2,174 2, Absorptions 1,263 9,325 1,97 9,39 9,29 9,448 9,382 9, Months supply Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. income, below only Vancouver. Continued price growth and interest rate increases will lift this proportion to 17.9 per cent in 215, again trailing only Vancouver. Apartment absorptions soared 18 per cent to a record high near 11, units in 214, but over 11,7 apartments were completed. This was the fourth straight year in which completions had outpaced absorptions, so builders unsold stocks hit a record 2,459 units in 214, twice the 21 level. For 215, we expect absorptions to exceed completions, so inventories will dip but remain high at about 2,43 units. Stocks will ease only slightly over the next few years. In many cities, such high stocks would discourage developers, but not in Montréal, where building permits for apartment units are rising significantly. Media reports suggest builders are offering a complete set of appliances to spur sales. Apartment starts rose 19 per cent in 214, albeit following declines in 212 and 213. Still, starts will slow later this year as inventories bite and end 215 down 11 per cent at just over 9,2 units. Persistently high unsold stocks will keep starts contained over the following few years.

13 Winter 215 Metropolitan Condo Outlook 9 Ottawa Share of Population by Age Cohort f A moderately improved economy will be enough to help boost unit sales of apartment condominiums in Ottawa by 1.4 per cent in 214. Price growth will also strengthen. In the new apartment condominium market, starts fell in both 213 and 214, but are expected to rise by 9.9 per cent in 214 as several projects get under way. Last year marked the fourth year in a row of declining sales in Ottawa s resale apartment condominium market. Indeed, after reaching a record 1,835 units in 21, sales then fell by an annual average of 7.3 per cent from 211 to 214, down to 1,349 units last year. Buyers were deterred by a weakening economy, tighter mortgage rules, and deteriorating affordability. In fact, real gross domestic product in Ottawa has grown very little recent years, averaging increases of just.5 per cent per year between 212 and 214. Much of this weakness has stemmed from significant cuts in the federal public service the region s biggest employer. At the same time, resale apartment condominium prices have nearly tripled over the past 15 years. While the slow economy detracted buyers, it also led to a sharp increase in the number of sellers. Active listings rose by 26.5 per cent on an average annual basis from 21 to 214, hitting a record 1,13 units last year. As a result, the sales-to-active-listings ratio dropped Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Apartment Condo Construction (starts, units; share, per cent) Apartment condo starts (left) Condo starts as a share of multiple starts (right) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. substantially, falling from 27 per cent in 21 to 1 per cent in 214, thereby transforming the market from a sellers position to a buyers one. In turn, prices began to weaken, falling 4.5 per cent in 213 and rising only.7 per cent last year. With growth in Ottawa s economy expected to improve this year (real GDP is forecast at 1.5 per cent for 215), buyers will slowly come back to the resale apartment condominium market. Unit sales of apartment condominiums are forecast to rise by 1.4 per cent this year

14 1 Metropolitan Condo Outlook Winter 215 Affordability and Apartment Condo Sales (share, per cent; sales, units) Sales to Active Listings and Price Change 18 Share of household income spent on mortgage (left) Existing apartment condo sales (right) 2, 8 Sales-to-active-listings ratio (left) Median price growth (right) f 17f 19f 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association. Ratio of Condominium Starts to Population Growth (starts per one person increase in population) Current year 2 year average f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Employment Growth f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. and by an average of 2.2 per cent per year from 216 to 219. Despite these gains, sales are expected to remain below the 21 peak over the entire forecast. Meanwhile, after their impressive run-up, active listings are expected to fall in the coming years, as sellers take a breather now that price growth has slowed. Active listings are set to decline all the way through to 218, before stabilizing at 84 units in 219. But this is still more than double the level of listings in 29, revealing the growing importance of the condominium market to Ottawa. The combination of higher sales and weaker listings will push the sales-to-active-listings ratio up to 14.9 per cent by 219 still well below the ratio s 37.9 per cent average between 22 and 21, when condo price inflation surged. As result, we expect prices to increase by just 1.3 per cent in 215 and by 2.4 per cent per year from 216 to 219. Although the resale market was already slowing by 212, the new apartment condominium market continued to be active, as builders broke ground on a record 2,277 units that year. Strong absorptions in the previous two years, an average of more than 1,4 units per year, were enough to encourage builders, even as inventories were creeping up. However, although absorptions remained elevated in 213, inventories

15 Winter 215 Metropolitan Condo Outlook 11 Resale Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Unit sales 1,546 1,493 1,349 1,368 1,49 1,437 1,465 1, Active listings 881 1,82 1,13 1, Months supply Median price ($) 271, , ,41 264,59 271,34 277,49 284,24 291, Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. New Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Starts 2,277 2,268 1,418 1,559 1,573 1,62 1,624 1, Under construction 2,663 3,354 3,131 2,67 2,657 2,666 2,666 2, Completions 1,458 1,334 2,412 1,541 1,572 1,61 1,62 1, Complete and not absorbed Absorptions 1,346 1,336 2,33 1,59 1,582 1,618 1,634 1, Months supply Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. jumped by almost 6 per cent. This prompted builders to reduce starts by.4 per cent that year and 37.5 per cent in 214. Although inventories remained high in 214, Ottawa apartment building permits nearly doubled during the six months to December 214 compared with their year-earlier levels. As a result, the new apartment condominium market is set to pick up again in 215, with starts forecast to increase by 9.9 per cent. In fact, construction is already under way on a number of new buildings this year, including The Bowery condominiums and Claridge s Icon condominiums in Little Italy. The Icon condominium building will be Ottawa s tallest. But this title may not last long. A new development proposed by Richcraft Homes, also in the Little Italy neighbourhood, would see the construction of three new towers, the biggest of which would be 55 storeys tall. Starts are expected to keep rising from 216 to 219, growing by a forecast average of 1.2 per cent per year. Absorptions are set to decline this year and next, albeit from a 214 record high, and then begin to rise through the next few years, helping to whittle down inventories.

16 12 Metropolitan Condo Outlook Winter 215 Toronto Share of Population by Age Cohort f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Toronto s decent economic prospects, its rapid population growth, and the desirability of living downtown or near public transit routes all suggest that a severe correction in Toronto s apartment condominium market is unlikely. While the large number of units under construction poses a risk, new-unit take-up exceeded completions last year and is expected to match them this year. Resale volumes are solid and prices continue to rise. A soft landing remains our call for this market segment, although brief periods of inflation-adjusted price drops are possible. Toronto s economy remains healthy and should be buoyed by U.S. economic recovery and the softer Canadian dollar. Its GDP growth is forecast to hit a five-year high of 2.8 per cent this year, spurring faster employment growth. Population hikes have averaged nearly 94, people annually over the past five years and are expected to exceed 1, annually starting in 215. Moreover, the population of condo-loving emptynesters aged 55 or more rose an average of 3.3 per cent annually over the past decade, twice the pace of overall population growth. Resulting healthy condominium demand will be amplified in 215 by persistently low mortgage interest rates. Forecasts of a collapsing apartment condominium market were not fulfilled in 214 as sales of existing units rose 1 per cent. Last year s 22,169 transactions Apartment Condo Construction (starts, units; share, per cent) 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Apartment condo starts (left) Condo starts as a share of multiple starts (right) 5, f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. approached Toronto s all-time high of 22,9 units in 211. And sales picked up in last year s second half, setting a healthy stage for 215. Sales are indeed forecast to inch higher in 215, then average 1.4 per cent annual growth between 216 and 219. This will lift apartment sales to a fresh record in 218. The number of active apartment listings rose for the fifth straight year in 214, although the last two annual gains have been below 1 per cent. Still, these increases lifted listings to a record high of 6,2 units. For 215,

17 Winter 215 Metropolitan Condo Outlook 13 Affordability and Apartment Condo Sales (share, per cent; sales, units) Share of household income spent on mortgage (left) Existing apartment condo sales (right) f 17f 19f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association. 25, 2, 15, 1, Sales to Active Listings and Price Change Sales-to-active-listings ratio (left) Median price growth (right) f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association Ratio of Condominium Starts to Population Growth (starts per one person increase in population) Employment Growth Current year 2 year average f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. we expect a more solid 4 per cent rise as ongoing sales increases assure potential vendors of a welcoming market. Last year s big increase in sales overwhelmed the modest rise in listings, pushing the sales-to-activelistings ratio to a three-year high of 29.8 per cent and the market to balance. The smaller sales gain and larger listings increase in 215 will trim the ratio to 28.8 per cent, still in balanced-market territory. This balance is forecast to continue through the next few years as the ratio drifts slightly higher. Toronto s median apartment price advanced 3.5 per cent last year as the market tightened. This was the fastest increase since 211 and followed gains just above 1 per cent in both 212 and 213. This price has not fallen on an annual basis since 1995 and has averaged nearly 6 per cent annual growth since then. We expect much slower price gains over the next few years, starting with a 1.9 per cent rise in 215. Toronto s condominium affordability is mixed. Although principle and interest payments on the median apartment condominium trail only Vancouver among the eight cities covered in this report, relatively high local incomes mean this payment required just 15.7 per cent of average local household income last year, below the figure in Montréal, Vancouver, and

18 14 Metropolitan Condo Outlook Winter 215 Resale Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Unit sales 2,167 2,84 22,169 22,269 22,457 22,86 23,164 23, Active listings 6,133 6,173 6,2 6,442 6,754 6,833 6,822 6, Months supply Median price ($) 35,246 38, ,53 325, , , ,42 347, Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. New Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Starts 27,413 17,45 12,862 12,32 12,468 12,771 13,69 13, Under construction 44,213 51,355 54,27 5,829 48,53 45,556 42,855 4, Completions 12,389 14,47 13,258 15,891 14,878 15,335 15,861 16, Complete and not absorbed 829 1, Absorptions 12,349 14,37 13,432 15,886 14,986 15,428 15,939 16, Months supply Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Victoria. Slowing price gains and projected moderate mortgage rate hikes in 215 will keep payments local bite at 16.1 per cent, again ranking Toronto fourth. The high number of apartment units under construction in Toronto is central to some analysts forecasts of an impending big correction in this market. But volumes fell 3 per cent to over 1,6 units between the first quarter and the fourth quarter of 214 and are forecast to drop further. And apartment absorptions have recently outpaced completions, helping to cut unsold builder stocks by 16 per cent between their nine-year high of 1,7 units in last year s second quarter to below 9 units in last year s fourth quarter. Continued strong absorptions over the next few years will further trim inventories. Builders have pulled back. Apartment starts in Toronto fell sharply in both 213 and 214 and are forecast to dip again this year. Our forecast 215 volume of just above 12, starts is less than half the peak of 27,413 units hit in 212. But we expect this to be the trough. Falling inventories will rekindle builder enthusiasm, lifting starts to just over 13,3 units by 219.

19 Winter 215 Metropolitan Condo Outlook 15 Calgary Share of Population by Age Cohort f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. The sharp drop in oil prices has quickly and dramatically sliced demand for all forms of housing in Calgary. The market for existing apartment condominiums, which had flirted with sellers conditions in 213 and 214, is correcting sharply, and oversupply looms. The same is true in the new condominium market, where completions will overwhelm absorptions, prompting a big increase in starts-killing inventories. Forecasting a bottom for these markets is tricky, though, since it depends heavily on future oil prices. Calgary s recent economic performance, including 4.5 per cent GDP growth in 214, now seems suddenly irrelevant to housing markets in the wake of the big drop in oil prices. The 29 correction is a better benchmark; it featured a 4 per cent drop in GDP that year and a 2 per cent employment decline in While Calgary s immediate future looks rocky, its medium-term path will be determined by oil s future price, for which forecasts vary widely, although the Conference Board believes that oil prices have likely bottomed out. Calgary s current downward economic lurch will put an abrupt end to four years of annual gains in apartment condominium sales, including a 22 per cent rise in 214 that lifted volumes to a record high. Frankly, once fear grips a market, as it evidently has in Calgary, calling the Apartment Condo Construction (starts, units; share, per cent) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Apartment condo starts (left) Condo starts as a share of multiple starts (right) f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database market bottom is difficult. Based on the 29 decline, though, a sales drop near 3 per cent in 215 and a further 1 2 per cent drop in 216 seems a reasonable call. As with sales, the recent market shift renders recent trends in active listings of apartment condominiums largely irrelevant. A big increase in this supply is inevitable, although last year s volume of close to 1,2 units makes a quintupling of listings like that between 26 and 28 simply unrealistic. Still, we expect listings to approach 1,4 units this year, implying roughly

20 16 Metropolitan Condo Outlook Winter 215 Affordability and Apartment Condo Sales (share, per cent; sales, units) Sales to Active Listings and Price Change 16 Share of household income spent on mortgage (left) Existing apartment condo sales (right) 6, 16 Sales-to-active-listings ratio (left) Median price growth (right) , , , f 17f 19f 2, f 18f 2 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association. Ratio of Condominium Starts to Population Growth (starts per one person increase in population) Employment Growth Current year 2 year average f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. an 18 per cent gain. A similar increase could occur in 216 should oil prices remain low. The combination of falling sales and rising listings will trim the sales-toactive-listings ratio to about 24 per cent for 215. This would be a big drop from ratios of 4 per cent posted in each of 213 and 214 post-recession highs and would signal buyers conditions in Calgary. The forecast figure would nonetheless remain above the 28 low of 16 per cent. The significant market slackening we expect means that last year s 8.4 per cent price increase a seven-year high will not be replicated. Now the question is: how big a price drop will occur? Calgary s median apartment price dropped 12 per cent between 27 and 29 and regained its pre-recession level only last year. It is therefore not unreasonable to expect two years of easing apartment prices if oil prices remain soft. Falling housing prices do have one bright spot: carrying costs on the median apartment unit will fall in 215. Calgary s previously excellent housing affordability, partly resulting from the price drop from the previous downturn, was eroding with recent years price growth. Calgary s mortgage charges trailed only those in Toronto and Vancouver last year. Our forecast price

21 Winter 215 Metropolitan Condo Outlook 17 Resale Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Unit sales 3,967 4,545 5,529 3,98 3,843 3,98 3,977 4, Active listings 1, ,16 1,365 1,641 1,438 1,361 1, Months supply Median price ($) 244, , , 266, ,142 27, ,15 283, Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. New Condominium Apartment Market f 216f 217f 218f 219f Starts 3,36 2,736 6,79 3,322 2,785 2,825 2,885 2, Under construction 4,344 4,396 6,51 6,492 5,331 4,739 4,367 4, Completions 1,648 2,667 3,55 4,364 3,762 3,25 3,241 3, Complete and not absorbed Absorptions 1,669 2,928 3,91 3,755 4,4 3,396 3,275 3, Months supply Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. drop implies that carrying charges are forecast to drop 1 per cent in 215, placing Calgary fourth among the eight cities covered in this report. Slowing housing demand also threatens Calgary s new construction market. New-unit absorptions hit a post-downturn high of nearly 3,1 units in 214, cutting the inventory of newly completed and unoccupied apartments to a single unit during the fourth quarter of 214. Although absorptions will remain high, likely because of heavy pre-sales, soaring completions will overwhelm them, significantly swelling unsold builder stocks. Over 7, units were under construction in the fourth quarter of 214, nearly twice the 2-year average. Easing apartment building permits late last year already pointed to softening apartment starts in 215; now builders are likely to trim construction even further. We expect Calgary apartment starts to ease 45 per cent to roughly 3,3 units in 215 and a further 16 per cent to 2,8 units in 216. Over the following few years, recovering oil prices will improve Calgary s housing demand, leading to falling builder stocks and then higher starts. We expect starts to rise 1 3 per cent annually between 217 and 219.

22 18 Metropolitan Condo Outlook Winter 215 Edmonton Share of Population by Age Cohort f The sharp drop in oil prices will slice residential demand in Edmonton. This includes the markets for both new and existing apartment condominiums, which had been gradually improving. Last year s return to balanced conditions in the apartment market could be short-lived, with a buyers state set to take hold this year. The new condominium market is also poised to slow. We expect falling absorptions to swell unsold inventories and trim starts. The depth and duration of housing market softness depends significantly on future oil prices, which are difficult to forecast. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Apartment Condo Construction (starts, units; share, per cent) 4, 3, 2, 1, Apartment condo starts (left) Condo starts as a share of multiple starts (right) The recent stretch of very strong economic growth will halt abruptly in Edmonton this year because of the big drop in oil prices. GDP will likely fall this year, after five straight annual advances exceeding 5 per cent. Recently strong job markets are also set to throttle back. All this suggests a significant slowing in residential demand, so oversupply looms for both new and existing housing markets. Existing apartment sales rose 7 per cent to nearly 3,2 units in 214, following a 14 per cent rise in 213. However, the collapse in oil prices makes recent history irrelevant to this year s housing market. Sales are retracting sharply and are forecast to end 215 down 26 per cent at just below 2,4 units. This year s forecast decline can be compared to a 35 per cent drop f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. in 28 in the midst of the previous downturn. We believe oil prices have likely bottomed out and will rise slowly over the rest of the year. This should help condominium sales rise 2 per cent next year. However, this year s projected sales decline makes the peak volume above 4,6 units in 27 essentially unreachable over the next few years. Listings are rising sharply as sales ease and are poised to end 215 up 24 per cent. Still, listings drops of 12 per cent in 213 and 16 per cent in 214 trimmed 1

23 Winter 215 Metropolitan Condo Outlook 19 Affordability and Apartment Condo Sales (share, per cent; sales, units) Share of household income spent on mortgage (left) Existing apartment condo sales (right) f 17f 19f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Sales to Active Listings and Price Change Sales-to-active-listings ratio (left) Median price growth (right) f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association Ratio of Condominium Starts to Population Growth (starts per one person increase in population) Employment Growth Current year 2 year average f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database f 18f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. the average 214 volume below 1, units for the first time since 26, so our forecast upswing will leave listings well below their 28 peak above 1,9 units. Falling sales and rising listings will cut the sales-toactive-listings ratio to a buyers market reading of 17 per cent this year, following its rise to a balancedmarket level of 28 per cent in 214. This ratio is forecast to inch higher over the next few years, but remain in buyers market territory. The market s sudden softening will prompt a decline in Edmonton s median apartment price following two years of small gains including a 1.7 per cent rise in 214. We expect this price to dip nearly 5 per cent in 215 and a further 1 per cent in 216. Even before this drop, however, the median apartment price was well below its 27 peak of just above $234,. The relatively soft market we expect over the next few years will cap annual price gains at 2 3 per cent. Easing prices in 215 will help maintain excellent local housing affordability. Edmonton s median apartment condominium price remains the lowest among the eight cities covered in this report. Meanwhile, average household incomes here are relatively high, trailing only Calgary among this report s cities. This implies that principle and interest payments on the median apartment condo are the lowest among this report s cities and also that these charges consume only 1.1 per cent of household incomes on average, also the lowest

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