Monitor Industrial Property Market Drechtsteden 2015

Transcription

1 Monitor Industrial Property Market Drechtsteden 2015 Developments Index Key findings and conclusions 1. Stock 2. Availability 3. Vacancy 4. Take-up 5. Planning capacity 6. Planning capacity versus demand How has the worldwide economic crisis effected the vacancy rate of industrial buildings? How has it effected the development in building stock and planning capacity? And, maybe even more interesting, how do these effects relate to the anticipated demand for industrial space and future governmental policy? Research Center Drechtsteden (OCD) has taken these questions as the foundation for her study and presents the findings and conclusions in this Monitor Industrial Property Market Drechtsteden 2015, a unique co-production with Municipal Taxes & Base Registrations Drechtsteden (GBD), Ooms Makelaars Commercial Real Esate and Waltmann & Co. Commercial Properties. The Monitor Industrial Property Market Drechtsteden 2015 has been drafted specifically for regional government and local authorities in order to provide more insight into several characteristics of the existing stock in industrial space, the vacancy rate and the developments thereof. This insight is not only important for regional and local policymakers, but is also very useful for local account managers and company contact officers who are confronted with business owners and their industrial housing needs and ambitions on a daily basis. This OCD product is a co-production with Municipal Taxes & Base Registrations Drechtsteden (GBD), Ooms Makelaars Commercial Real Estate and Waltmann & Co Commercial Properties. In compiling this monitor it has been our aim to make use of a widely supported (also by market players) set of definitions. We have used data supplied by the Municipal Taxes & Base Registrations Drechtsteden (GBD) and sought consultation with two big regional real estate brokers. For a complete review of the definitions and resources, see the box 'definitions and resources' at the end of this fact sheet. In this factsheet the OCD presents the current state of affairs in the industrial property market within the Drechtsteden per and the developments over the period We will look at stock, availability, vacancy, take-up, planning capacity and last but not least the expected future demand for industrial space. The figures for the Drechtsteden area as well as for the separate municipalities involved, can be found at the end of this factsheet.

2 National trends and developments on the industrial property market The economic developments in recent years have led to a decline in demand for commercial properties and, on average, less square meters commercial space per individual business. This has resulted in an increase in availability and vacancy and a lower take-up level. There is an ongoing unbalanced growth in the availability and demand ratio. On a short term notice it is unrealistic to expect a strong improvement in this ratio. Transformation possibilities are limited because industrial properties are generally poorly suitable for other purposes. On a side note however, in many cases modernization and upgrading of such properties is feasible. The share of logistics industry in the overall demand for industrial property will continue to grow in the future. The demand for high quality urban distribution is increasing as a result of e-commerce and the demand for custom home deliveries. The so called 'last-mile' distribution will become more extensive. Because of this, central distribution points, pick-up points and vault units will spring up at the outskirts of urban areas. New consumer demand is transforming the demand for location. The type of use as well as the consumer's requirements are changing. An industrial area or business parc is becoming more and more a platform for knowledge and production connection. In order to facilitate mutual cooperation, there is a greater need for durable industrial locations that are embedded in local structures. Because of structural oversupply and the loss of demand, the value perspective of existing industrial properties in outdated and mono-functional industrial areas Source: FGH Real Estate Report 2015 "The power of a different perspective' (FGH Bank, 2015) Key findings Stock At the beginning of 2015 the stock of industrial real estate properties within the Drechtsteden consisted of a volume of over 4.2 million m 2 (including small industrial premises). Since the beginning of 2012 the stock has increased with more than m 2. The increase in stock is due to the addition of new premises (for example on Dordtse Kil III Allied Motion Dordrecht, Heymans and Groeneveld) and the expansion of existing properties. 1 In some cases it is due to a change in functional use (for example Energiehuis in Dordrecht which now has a social function instead of its former industrial function) which means industrial property will be withdrawn from stock. More and more industrial properties are located in industrial areas or business parcs. The increase in stock industrial properties takes place in industrial areas, since 2012 a growth of m 2. Outside of these industrial areas the stock has decreased with m 2. The industrial properties within the Drechtsteden have an average size of m 2. On average the industrial properties in new industrial areas or business parcs are much smaller in size than the ones in older industrial areas. The stock of industrial properties is ageing. Almost three quarters (74%) of the stock is over 15 years old. Three years ago this was 69%. The share of younger stock (younger than 5 years) is decreasing. Availability At the beginning of 2015 about m 2 of industrial properties within the Drechtsteden area was being offered by market participants. This is significantly more than during the beginning of 2012 when availability was m 2. 1 In addition to adding new properties and the expansion of existing properties, the volume of stock can change as a result of changes in surface data of existing objects, whereupon objects may or may not meet the criteria of a business property, or as a result of a change in functional use. Besides that, the stock volume sometimes changes as a result of withdrawal from stock (demolition). 2

3 The availability has increased mainly in industrial areas and business parcs ( m 2 ); outside those areas availability is decreasing (-5.00 m 2 ). Proportionally there is a large availability of industrial property in the category from m 2 tot m 2. Vacancy Over the period to the vacancy of industrial premises within the Drechtsteden has increased substantially, from m 2 in 2012 to m 2 in % of the stock is currently vacant, in 2012 this was 6.8%. Despite this vacancy growth over the period , we can see a positive development in the last year. In 2014 the vacancy growth was significantly lower ( m 2 ) than in 2011 ( m 2 ). During the last three years the vacancy rate has increased mainly due to the departure of several companies. They left behind large industrial premises such as Adria Benelux, TNT Post Parcel Service Benelux BV and Platform Sales Europe BV in Dordrecht, Arbez and Bruynzeel in Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht and Turboned in Zwijndrecht. The number of vacant industrial properties is much higher than the number of industrial properties offered by market players. An explanation for this difference can be found in the text bar on page 10. The vacancy rate of industrial properties is highly fragmented across the region. At the beginning of 2015 the vacancy rate of industrial properties within the six Drechtsteden municipalities varied from 3.9% in Papendrecht to 11.8% in Dordrecht. The vacancy rate has increased at both the old and the new industrial areas and business parcs. Currently, the vacancy rate at the new industrial areas within the Drechtsteden is even above the regional average. More than half of the vacant industrial premises are small properties of less than 250 m 2. Added together this is just 12% of the overall vacancy rate in square meters. On the other hand less than 2% of the number of vacant industrial properties consists of properties bigger than m 2. Expressed in square meters this makes up a quarter of the total vacancy. Long term vacancy has increased. Currently m 2 of industrial properties has been vacant for more than five years (in 2012 this was m 2 ). We already concluded that short term (less than a year) vacancy growth has decreased in Take-up During the past five years ( ) the take-up of industrial properties consisted of a total of m 2 including small industrial properties, an average of m 2 per year. Within this period the annual take-up fluctuated considerably, between and m 2 (in the previous year). Logically, most of the industrial property take-up took place in industrial areas or business parcs ( m 2 during the past five years, half of which in Dordrecht). Planning capacity versus demand The planning capacity of industrial property in the Drechtsteden currently has a range of 192 hectares of land, or more than 1.3 million m 2 of industrial space surface area. This includes the yet to be developed Dordtse Kil IV (65 hectares). More than half (100 hectares) of the available land is readily available. Up to 2013 the total demand for available space (autonomous and interregional) for the Drechtsteden was 110 hectares and for the period another 60 hectares. The current planning capacity is therefore more than sufficient in order to meet the total demand for available space for industrial properties up to m 2 as well as for large scale business complexes (from m 2 ). Conclusions As a result of the economic crisis, the industrial property market in the Drechtsteden may have seen an unfavorable development during the period (increase in availability and vacancy), however, we can clearly see signs of recovery during the last 3

4 year: increase in take-up and a decrease in vacancy growth. It is expected that this positive trend will further continue. Waltmann & Co Commercial Properties and Ooms Makelaars Commercial Real Estate (partner in Dynamis) have 4 branches in the Drechtsteden and are both active in all areas of the real estate property market. From their offices in Dordrecht both companies are active in the field of lease and rental, purchase and sale of office buildings, retail and commercial properties and exploitation related real estate. They are specialists in the region and identify trends and movements in the market. In comparison with the market for office space, the vacancy rate of industrial property within the Drechtsteden is less structural. Now that the economy is picking up again, it is expected that many vacant industrial properties will be used again, at times with some modifications, due to a more favorable price development in comparison with newly constructed buildings. Moreover, vacant industrial property can meet the growing need for flexible floor space for start-ups. Transformation to other functional uses is difficult to achieve where vacancy of industrial property is structural. Industrial property vacancy is highly fragmented throughout the various industrial areas across the region. Redevelopment of industrial areas is useful only in case of vacancy clustering. Many transactions on the industrial property market in the Drechtsteden concern parties within the municipality or region and so effective take-up stays limited. With a current planning capacity of 192 hectares the Drechtsteden are able to respond to future demand for industrial properties up to m 2 as well as the demand for large scale industrial complexes (from m 2 ), especially in the field of logistics (with Dordtse Kil IV). Table 1 Ratio Industrial Property Market Drechtsteden 2012 and 2015 (x m 2 ) stock supply vacancy take-up 232 planning capacity Note: stock, availability and vacancy per and ; take-up is the total take-up for the period ; planning capacity expressed in m 2 business property (x 1.000) is per , this is the average of the lower limit of m 2 and the upper limit of m 2 (based on a plot surface of minimal 50% and a maximum of 70%). Source: GBD, PropertyNL, iwoz, business brokers operating in the Drechtsteden (data editing OCD) 1 Stock In The Netherlands no official statistics are available that register industrial properties in a uniform and complete matter. Several market participants publish stock figures, but they often display major mutual differences. These differences are mainly due to the various definitions being used. For the Drechtsteden region it is of great importance to have a complete picture of the total stock in industrial properties. In order to fully and accurately map the total stock of industrial premises within the Drechtsteden, the OCD has used data from Municipal Taxes & Base Registrations Drechtsteden (GBD) for the compliance of this monitor. In the text box on the next page we have explained how we have done this. According to the records of the GBD, the Drechtsteden has a total stock of 4.2 million m 2 of industrial property (reference date January 1, 2015). The Drechtsteden has a total of almost industrial premises. Compared to early 2012, stock has increased by more 4

5 than m 2. The growth is due to the addition of new objects to the stock, expansion of existing objects, or changes in the surface data of existing objects as a result of which objects may or may not meet the criteria for industrial space. In addition, stock volume changes as a result of withdrawal from stock (demolition or functional changes). Municipal tax records as source for stock and vacancy industrial property In order to carry out their task, Municipal Taxes and Base Registrations Drechtsteden (GBD) has a register of all non-residential properties in the Drechtsteden at their disposal. This register contains square meter data of industrial premises, such as office, business and retail properties. To determine the stock volume of industrial properties all registered objects belonging to the following groups have been selected: businesses, warehousing/distribution, fire stations, mixed companies, machinery contractors and offices. Solely offices consisting of less than 70% office floor space have been counted. Offices with more than 70% office floor area are defined as "office" (see the OCD Office Market Monitor Drechtsteden 2015). Small industrial properties have been included in the stock volume as well. Solely buildings have been included, i.e. surface areas of docks, pipelines, tanks, pavement, land and such have not been taken into consideration. Subsequently, a portion of the peripheral retail (shops located in industrial areas) that currently has a shopping destination has been added as well. However, according to regional market players this portion will be offered as industrial property if it ever becomes available. The GBD furthermore keeps a record of premises not in use, and thus being vacant, as well as the date as of which the property has been empty. The register of all industrial properties that has been obtained through this process, has been edited by the OCD. We have added whether properties are located in an industrial area, the size and age categories as well as vacancy duration. Table 2 shows how this stock of more than 4.2 million m 2 of industrial property is divided over six municipalities within the Drechtsteden and how the stock has evolved. The table shows that 40% of the stock is located in Dordrecht, over 1.7 million m 2. Zwijndrecht has the largest stock of industrial space ( m 2 ) of all smaller municipalities. Hendrik- Ido-Ambacht ( m 2 ) has the smallest stock. In almost all municipalities the stock has increased over the last three years, ranging from m 2 in Dordrecht to m 2 in Alblasserdam. Only in Hendrik Ido Ambacht the stock volume has slightly decreased. In total, the stock volume of industrial property in the Drechtsteden has increased with m 2 over the past three years. Table 1 in the appendix shows a complete overview of square meters industrial property spread over the six municipalities in 2012 and The increase in stock is due to the addition of new industrial premises (for example on Dordtse Kil III Allied Motion Dordrecht, Heymans and Groeneveld) or the expansion of existing properties. In some cases it is due to a change in functional use (for example Energiehuis in Dordrecht which now has a social function instead of its former industrial function) which means industrial property will be withdrawn from stock. 5

6 Table 2 Development stock volume industrial property in the Drechtsteden, (x m 2 ) Alblasserdam 514,7 Dordrecht 1.705,9 Hendrik-Ido- Ambacht Papendrecht 309,7 363, Sliedrecht 433,8 Zwijndrecht 876,8 Drechtsteden 4.204, Location The industrial properties are mostly located in industrial areas. In this monitor we distinguish three different industrial property locations within the Drechtsteden: Old industrial areas: the industrial areas from before the year 2000 (in this region most industrial areas); New industrial areas: the industrial areas as of the year 2000 (Polder Nieuwland, Amstelwijck, Dordtse Kil III, Business Parc Langeweg, Land van Matena, Nieuwland, Baanhoek-West, De Driehoek, Bakestein); Other locations: mostly locations within the residential areas. Table 3 shows the three locations within the Drechtsteden on one map. Table 3 Old and new industrial areas within the Drechtsteden 6

7 Table 4 shows the development of the stock volume divided over the three location categories within the Drechtsteden (see also table 2 in the appendix). The stock volume has increased in the old industrial areas ( m 2 ) and in the new industrial areas and business parcs ( m 2 ). In the other locations the stock volume industrial properties has decreased ( m 2 ). More and more industrial properties are thus situated in industrial areas. Table 4 Development stock volume industrial property in the Drechtsteden based on location, (x m 2 ) old industrial areas 3.474,1 new industrial areas 334,5 other locations 395, Drechtsteden 4.204, Size 90% of the total square meters of industrial property is located in industrial areas, 10% is located outside the industrial areas. When looking at the number of premises, we will see a distribution of 70% in industrial areas and 30% outside. The average size per industrial property in the Drechtsteden is about m 2. In industrial areas the average size of an industrial property (almost m 2 ) is considerably larger than outside industrial areas (300 m 2 ). We can also see a clear difference in average size between industrial premises located in old (1.500 m 2 ) and in new industrial areas (800 m 2 ). Table 5 shows how the total stock volume (first in, then in square meters) of industrial property in the Drechtsteden is divided according to size. The Drechtsteden has a total number of nearly industrial properties. Half of these objects are smaller than 250 m 2, which is 5% of the total surface area. Less than 2% of all industrial properties have an area larger than m 2, which is 31% of the total surface area. See table 2 in the appendix for more information about the stock related to size. Table 5 Division stock volume industrial property in the Drechtsteden according to size per , respectively expressed in and in m 2 objects m 2 7% 2%2% < 100 m2 4% 5% 10% 26% m2 31% 9% m2 13% 500-1,000 m2 13% 1,000-2,000 m2 16% 24% 2,000-5,000 m2 16% 21% 5,000-10,000 m2 10,000 m2 7

8 Age A logical result of the economic crisis is the aging of stock industrial property. Early 2015, nearly three-quarters of the stock in the Drechtsteden was older than 15 years (see table 6), in 2012 this share was less than 70%. For more information, see table 3 in the appendix. Table 6 Division m 2 stock volume industrial property in the Drechtsteden according to age per < 5 years 4% 5% 8% between 5 and 10 years between 10 and 15 years older than 15 years 9% age unknown 74% 2 Availability How much industrial real estate property is being offered on the open market by business brokers? Existing and completed properties as well as properties under construction or renovation, that will actually become available within twelve months or are not already taken out of the market, will be registered in the availability. It is possible that premises will be included in the availability without being vacant; the property may still be in use or under construction. On the other hand there is quite some vacancy that is not being offered. In the past three years the availability of industrial property has increased unmistakably ( m 2 ). In 2012 the availability amounted to m 2, currently it is m 2. Primarily in Dordrecht ( m 2 ), Alblasserdam ( m 2 ) and Zwijndrecht ( m 2 ) the availability increased (see table 7). Compared to the total availability Dordrecht and Zwijndrecht do have the most industrial properties in availability, Papendrecht and Sliedrecht the least. Overall, the availability increased within the Drechtsteden. The average size of available property is now m 2. Table 7 Development availability industrial property within the Drechtsteden, (x m 2 ) Alblasserdam 25,1 Dordrecht 147,1 Hendrik-Ido- Ambacht Papendrecht 17,0 11, Sliedrecht 10,9 Zwijndrecht 52,4 Drechtsteden 263, Source: PropertyNL, iwoz, Real Estate brokers operating within the Drechtsteden (data editing OCD) 8

9 Location The availability has increased in both old and new industrial areas and business parcs, but the most in the old industrial areas ( m 2 ). See also table 4 in the appendix. In the new industrial areas the availability increased with m 2 (see table 8). Table 8 Development availability industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location, (x m 2 ) old industrial areas 220,9 new industrial areas 28,9 other locations 13, Drechtsteden 263, Source: PropertyNL, iwoz, Real Estate brokers operating within the Drechtsteden (data editing OCD) Size Table 9 shows how the availability of industrial property within the Drechtsteden is divided according to property size. A third of the available square meters industrial property involves larges objects, from m 2. Availability of properties this size occurs in Alblasserdam, Dordrecht, Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht and Zwijndrecht (see table 5 in the appendix). Altogether there are only 10 properties of such large size. Table 9 Division m 2 availability industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to size per < 100 m2 18% 5% 7% 100 to 250 m2 250 to 500 m2 10% 500 to m to m2 15% m2 to m to m2 21% as of m2 23% Source: PropertyNL, iwoz, Real Estate brokers operating within the Drechtsteden (data editing OCD) 3 Vacancy The increase in availability of industrial properties is largely due to increase in vacancy (see table 10), in other words: no business activities are taking place in these industrial buildings. At the beginning of 2015 about m 2 of the total stock industrial properties within the Drechsteden is vacant (785 objects), m 2 more than in The vacancy of industrial property has increased in all municipalities. Especially in Dordrecht ( m 2 ), but also in Zwijndrecht ( m 2 ) and Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht ( m 2 ) the vacancy has increased significantly in absolute terms. Further commentary on the differences in numbers between vacancy and availability can be found in the text box on the following page. The development of vacancy rates is indeed the balance between establishment and departure, expansion and dwindling of businesses. But of importance in this current 9

10 development is the departure of several businesses of which some have left behind large industrial properties (such as for example Adria Benelux, TNT Post Pakketservice Benelux BV and Platform Sales Europe BV in Dordrecht, Arbez and Bruynzeel in Hendrik-Ido- Ambacht and Turboned in Zwijndrecht). Table 10 Development vacancy industrial property within the Drechtsteden, 2012 and 2015 (x m 2 ) Alblasserdam 48,4 Dordrecht 201,2 Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht 35,7 Papendrecht Sliedrecht 14,1 43, Zwijndrecht 84,7 Drechtsteden 427, Vacancy versus availability commercial property In this factsheet we elaborate on both availability and vacancy of industrial property. The numbers and square meters of available and vacant premises do not match. At the beginning of 2015, 785 commercial properties were vacant, but only 277 were offered as available. Not all available stock is necessarily vacant. On the other hand, not all vacant properties have been registered as available. It may concern properties that that are partially being used or properties that are outdated and will no longer be offered as available on the market. Even so, small vacant commercial properties are hardly ever included in the registered availability. This is the so called hidden vacancy. Vacancy percentages An equally interesting fact is the vacancy rate in contrast to the stock rate (see table 11). 10.2% of the stock industrial property in the Drechtsteden is vacant, in 2012 this was just 6.8%. The vacancy rate, in contrast to the stock rate, has increased in all municipalities. Dordrecht and Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht are above the regional average, Alblasserdam, Sliedrecht and Zwijndrecht are just below average. In Papendrecht the vacancy rate has increased, but is still at a very low level. 10

11 Table 11 Development vacancy rates industrial property within the Drechtsteden, 2012 and 2015 Alblasserdam 9,4% Dordrecht 11,8% Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht 11,5% Papendrecht Sliedrecht 3,9% 10,1% Zwijndrecht 9,7% Drechtsteden 10,2% 0% 5% 10% 15% Location The vacancy rate of industrial property in the region is highly fragmented. When looking at the various distinct industrial property locations, we can see that the vacancy rate in square meters, but also in contrast to the stock, has increased both in the old and new industrial areas (see table 12 and 13 as well as table 6 in the appendix). The vacancy rate in the new industrial areas is even slightly above regional average. Part of the vacant industrial property located in old industrial areas is outdated, but can be upgraded for suitable (re)use with minor adjustments. In other locations the vacancy rate has remained the same in absolute terms, but has increased in relative terms due to a decrease in stock. Table 12 Development vacancy industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location, 2012 and 2015 (x m 2 ) old industrial areas 341,6 new industrial areas 38,9 other locations 47, Drechtsteden 427,

12 Table 13 Development vacancy rates industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location, 2012 and 2015 old industrial areas 9,8% new industrial areas 11,6% other locations 12,0% Drechtsteden 10,2% 0% 5% 10% 15% Size At the beginning of 2015, 785 industrial properties within the Drechtsteden are vacant, a total of m 2. Table 14 presents the division according to size for both the number of objects and the number of square meters. More than 60% of the vacant industrial properties are small premises up to 250 m 2, this is 12% of the vacant square meters. Less than 2% of the number of vacant properties are properties larger than m 2. These large premises, however, do cover a quarter of the total vacant square meters. More numbers can be found in table 7 in the appendix. Table 14 Division vacancy industrial property, according to and in m 2, within the Drechtsteden according to size per objects m 2 5% 4%1%1% < 100 m2 12% 9% 100 to 250 m2 12% 29% 250 to 500 m2 13% 10% 15% 500 to m to m2 16% m2 to m2 24% 33% to m2 13% as of m2 Vacancy duration When looking at the vacancy duration, we can see a positive trend in the number of square meters that remains vacant for less than a year. In 2012, m 2 (almost half of the total vacancy) remained vacant for less than a year. In 2015 this number was much lower. At the beginning of 2015, m2 remained vacant for less than a year, this is not even 20% of the total vacancy (see table 15). This means that vacancy has significantly decreased in 2014 compared to More than 40% has been vacant for more than 3 years, 21% even more than 5 years. Long term vacancy, also known as 'structural vacancy', of industrial property is an indication for unmarketable stock. A industrial property is unmarketable when considered technically outdated and therefore no longer usable as industrial space. Finally, many of these properties will no longer be offered as available. Such 'hidden vacancy' is also present within the Drechtsteden. Especially smaller vacant industrial properties are not 12

13 always offered by market players. The majority of the long term vacancies concerns industrial properties older than 15 years. Long term or structural vacancy of industrial properties can be seen throughout the Drechtsteden. Most of these square meters are located in Dordrecht and Zwijndrecht (see table 8 in the appendix). Table 15 Division m 2 vacancy industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to duration per < 1 year 1 to 2 years 2 to 3 years 3 to 5 years 5 to 10 years 23% 19% 19% 23% longer than 10 years 15% 4 Take-up The regional industrial property market knows considerable dynamics. During the past 5 years ( ) a total of m 2 in industrial properties has been taken up, an average of m 2 annually. This includes small industrial properties of less than 250 m 2. The take-up during this period varies from m 2 in 2013 to m 2 in It is expected that the take-up in 2015 and the coming years will further increase. The number of transactions fluctuates around 60 to 80 transactions per year (in 2011 and 2014, 82 transactions per year while in other years 58 transactions per year). The average transaction size within the region varies: during the past five years between 600 and 800 m 2. Table 16 Development take-up industrial property within the Drechtsteden (x m 2 ) , ,3 48,5 38,5 38,4 46, av Source: PropertyNL (data editing OCD) The ratio between demand (take-up) and availability is an important indicator for the functioning of the industrial real estate property market. The take-up in 2014 in contrast to the availability at the beginning of 2015 results in a 'industrial property market ratio' of 23%. In 2012 the ratio was 29%. This means that the industrial real estate property market within the Drechtsteden has become slightly more voluminous than it was in Table 17 shows the total take-up square meters industrial property in the six municipalities over the period and the average per year (see also table 9 in the appendix). Half of the total take-up of industrial property within the Drechtsteden is on behalf of Dordrecht, followed at quite a distance by Zwijndrecht (19%). Most take-up of industrial property within the Drechtsteden takes place in old industrial areas. 13

14 Table 17 Take-up industrial property within the Drechtsteden (x m 2 ) Alblasserdam Dordrecht 23,7 5,8 28,8 118,4 Hendrik-Ido- Ambacht Papendrecht 1,4 7,2 2,8 14,0 average per year Sliedrecht 3,9 19,5 Zwijndrecht Drechtsteden 8,9 44,3 46,4 232, Source: PropertyNL (data editing OCD) Table 18 Division m 2 take-up commerical property within the Drechtsteden according to location old industrial areas 9% 6% new industrial areas other locations 85% Source: PropertyNL (data editing OCD) 5 Planning capacity At the beginning of 2015, 192 hectares of industrial area are available for the development of new industrial properties. Nearly 100 hectares are immediately available while 92 hectares are not readily available. This concerns the complete availability of industrial areas within the Drechtsteden: new locations, redevelopment locations, including privately offered areas and seaport areas. This availability includes the yet to be developed Dordtse Kil IV with a total area of 65 hectares. Converted into gross floor area (GFA) there is a planning capacity of nearly 1.0 up to 1.3 million m 2 of industrial property space, of which to m 2 is immediately available. 2 All municipalities within the Drechtsteden have space available for new industrial properties. The most in Dordrecht, the least in Papendrecht (see table 20). Two thirds of the regional planning capacity is situated in the industrial areas in Dordrecht, partly in new business parcs (Amstelwijck and Dordtse Kil III), partly in old industrial areas (1 e Merwedehaven/Oostpoort, 3 e Merwedehaven, Julianahaven and Krabbepolder) or in new to be developed industrial areas (Dordtse Kil IV). About 15% of the regional planning capacity is situated in the industrial areas in Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht (Ambachtsezoom, Antoniapolder, the old Noordoevers location, Bedrijvenpark Langeweg). A large part of this is not yet immediately available. A complete overview of the planning capacity within the Drechtsteden can be found in table 10 and 11 in the appendix. 2 We herefore use a range of actual and usual development density rate of 50% to 70% (i.e. 1 hectare of land equals to m 2 gfa). 14

15 Table 19 Planning capacity industrial areas and industrial property within the Drechtsteden 2015 (in hectare en m 2 bvo) hectares x m2 gfa (lower limit) x m2 gfa (upper limit) Source: Province of Zuid-Holland (municipality reports, data editing OCD) Table 20 Planning capacity industrial areas and industrial property within the Drechtsteden 2015 Alblasserdam Dordrecht Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht Papendrecht Sliedrecht Zwijndrecht hectares industrial areas x m2 industrial property (lower limit) x m2 industrial property (upper limit) Source: Province of Zuid-Holland (municipality reports, data editing OCD) 6 Planning capacity versus demand How does the current industrial property planning capacity relate to the anticipated demand for industrial property in the future within the Drechtsteden? The total demand for floor space up to 2030 is about 110 hectares. This demand consists of an autonomous regional demand and an interregional demand for floor space. Industrial areas within the Drechtsteden first and foremost cover the demand of the regional business sector. Until 2030 there will mainly be an autonomous demand for floor space coming from the logistics sector (52 hectares). Besides this, there is an autonomous demand for floor space from the industrial sector (23 hectares). The total autonomous regional demand within the Drechtsteden is therefore 75 hectares. In addition to the autonomous demand from within the Drechtsteden, there is also a demand for floor space coming from the logistics sector in Rijnmond (30 hectares). 3 For the period 2030 to 2040 the demand is estimated at an additional 60 hectares. The current planning capacity of 192 hectares of industrial area is more than sufficient to meet the total demand up to 2030, but also up to The Drechtsteden are able to respond adequately to both the demand for industrial properties up to m 2 as well as 3 Ecorys (2014), Demand-availability analysis Drechtsteden in context of the accelerated development Dordtse Kil IV (carried out on behalf of the Province Zuid-Holland). Based on the scenario Transatlantic Market. 15

16 the demand for large scale industrial complexes (as of m 2 ) especially in logistics (with Dordtse Kil IV). Due to a lack of existing, large industrial properties within this size class, there is a relatively larger demand for new construction. 4 Definitions and resources Industrial property: Object or part of an object (more than 30%) that, according to construction and design, is designated for the purpose of commercial activities such as manufacturing, warehousing, or assemblage of components. Added are objects belonging to the peripheral retail business (stores in industrial areas) that currently have a retail objective, but according to market players will be offered as commercial space if they ever become available. Stock: Area of completed and existing space according to the administration of Municipal Taxes & Base Registrations Drechtsteden. The stock increases annually with the completion of new construction projects and buildings that change in functional use. In contrast, stock decreases due to demolition of existing buildings and buildings that change in functional use for other than commercial purposes. Source: Municipal Taxes & Base Registrations Drechtsteden Availability: Putting interdependent commercial real estate properties on the free market. Exclusively existing and completed properties as well as properties under construction or renovation, that will actually become available within twelve months and are not already taken out of the market, will be registered in the availability. It is possible that premises will be included in the availability without being vacant; the property may still be in use or under construction. Source: PropertyNL, iwoz, websites of business brokers operating in the region Vacancy: In general, commercial properties (or parts thereof) that are not being rented and/or used. No business activities are taking place in these spaces. Source: Municipal Taxes & Base Registrations Drechtsteden Take-up: A transaction on the 'free' market in which industrial property is being rented or sold; this is the market where investors, individuals and project developers are offering real estate properties to yet unknown future renters and/or buyers. Source: PropertyNL Planning capacity: Yet to be released acreage of wet and dry industrial terrain for the purpose of industrial property. A distinction is being drawn between readily and not readily available land. Source: Drechtsteden municipalities drs. A.L.C. Leijs October 2015 P.O. Box AP Dordrecht (078) ocd@drechtsteden.nl 4 Core Figures Industrial Property Markets 2015, Dynamis,

17 Appendix Stock, availability, vacancy, take-up and planning capacity industrial properties Stock Table 1a Stock industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location per (in m 2 ) in old industrial areas ,1% in new industrial areas ,3% other locations ,6% total m Table 1b Stock industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location per (in m 2 ) in old industrial areas ,6% in new industrial areas ,0% other locations ,4% total m Table 2a Stock industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to size per (in m 2 ) < 100 m ,1% 100 m 2 to 250 m ,5% 250 m 2 to 500 m ,2% 500 m 2 to m ,0% m 2 to m ,2% m 2 to m ,1% m 2 to m ,8% as of m ,1% total m

18 Table 2b Stock industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to size per (in m 2 ) < 100 m ,1% 100 m 2 to 250 m ,6% 250 m 2 to 500 m ,2% 500 m 2 to m ,1% m 2 to m ,9% m 2 to m ,0% m 2 to m ,9% as of m ,2% total m Table 3a Stock industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to age per (in m 2 ) < 5 years ,6% between 5 and 10 years between 10 and 15 years ,1% ,8% older than 15 years ,1% total m Note: total m 2 is inclusive objects with 'year of construction unknown Table 3b Stock industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to age per (in m 2 ) < 5 years ,1% between 5 and 10 years beween 10 and 15 years ,2% ,7% older than 15 years ,7% total m Note: total m 2 is inclusive objects with 'year of construction unknown' 18

19 Availability Table 4a Availability industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location per (in m 2 ) in old industrial areas ,8% in new industrial areas ,1% other locations ,2% total Source: PropertyNL, iwoz, business brokers operating in the Drechtsteden (data editing OCD) Table 4b Availability industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location per (in m 2 ) in old industrial areas ,8% in new industrial areas ,0% other locations ,3% total Source: PropertyNL, iwoz, business brokers operating in the Drechtsteden (data editing OCD) Table 5a Availability industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to size per (in m 2 ) < 100 m ,1% 2 obj. 100 m 2 to 250 m ,4% 4 obj. 250 m 2 to 500 m ,2% 11 obj. 500 m 2 to m ,8% 29 obj m 2 to m % 24 obj m 2 to m ,9% 13 obj m 2 to m ,5% 2 obj. as of m ,0% 5 obj. total Source: PropertyNL, iwoz, business brokers operating in the Drechtsteden zijn (data editing OCD)

20 Table 5b Availability industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to size per (in m 2 ) < 100 m ,0% 39 obj. 100 m 2 to 250 m ,7% 75 obj. 250 m 2 to 500 m ,4% 55 obj. 500 m 2 to m ,9% 37 obj m 2 to m ,2% 39 obj m 2 to m ,0% 22 obj m 2 to m ,9% 6 obj. as of m ,8% 4 obj. total Source: PropertyNL, iwoz, business brokers operating in the Drechtsteden (data editing OCD) Vacancy Table 6a Vacancy industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location per (in m 2 and as % of stock) in old industrial areas ,0% in new industrial areas ,0% other locations ,8% ,7% ,5% ,5% ,7% 600 1,1% ,2% ,6% ,7% ,5% ,3% ,3% ,9% ,8% ,2% ,9% ,0% total % stock ,5% ,2% ,0% ,5% ,4% ,7% ,8% Table 6b Vacancy industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location per (in m 2 and as % of stock) in old industrial areas ,7% in new industrial areas ,9% other locations ,8% ,6% ,5% ,2% ,8% 500 1,4% ,8% ,0% ,8% ,4% ,4% ,7% ,0% ,0% ,8% ,6% ,0% total % stock ,4% ,8% ,5% ,9% ,1% ,7% ,2% 20

21 Table 7a Vacancy industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to size per (in m 2 ) < 100 m ,1% 223 obj. 100 m 2 to 250 m ,7% 181 obj. 250 m 2 to 500 m ,0% 88 obj. 500 m 2 to m ,2% 72 obj m 2 to m ,4% 25 obj m 2 to m ,4% 19 obj m 2 to m ,2% 5 obj. as of m ,9% 2 obj. total m Table 7b Vacancy industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to size per (in m 2 ) < 100 m ,7% 225 obj. 100 m 2 to 250 m ,5% 260 obj. 250 m 2 to 500 m % 120 obj. 500 m 2 to m ,8% 98 obj m 2 to m ,0% 38 obj m 2 to m ,8% 32 obj m 2 to m ,1% 8 obj. as of m ,2% 4 obj. total m

22 Table 8a Vacancy industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to duration per (in m 2 ) < 1 year ,3% 1 to 2 years ,5% 2 to 3 years ,1% 3 to 5 years ,3% 5 to 10 years ,0% longer than 10 years ,7% total m Table 8b Vacancy industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to duration per (in m 2 ) < 1 year ,0% 1 to 2 years ,4% 2 to 3 years ,7% 3 to 5 years ,3% 5 to 10 years ,3% longer than 10 years ,2% total m Take-up Table 9 Take-up industrial property within the Drechtsteden according to location in (in m 2 ) in old industrial areas ,4% in new industrial areas ,5% other locations ,0% total Source: PropertyNL (data editing OCD) 22

23 Planning capacity Table 10 Planning capacity industrial areas and industrial property within the Drechtsteden per (in hectare and m 2 ) readily available 13, , not readily available - 69, , , , , , , ,0% - 92, ,0% total 13, ,2% 128, ,0% 28, ,8% 0, ,5% 9, ,1% 10, ,5% 192, Source: Province of Zuid-Holland (municipality reports, data editing OCD) Table 11 Overview planning capacity industrial areas and industrial property within the Drechtsteden per municipality industrial area readily not readily total availability available available ha m 2 gfa Alblasserdam Polder het Nieuwland 2,8-2, Alblasserdam Hoogendijk 11,0 11, Dordrecht 1 e Merwedehaven + 13,6-13, Oostpoort Dordrecht Amstelwijck (bedrijven) 3,9-3, Dordrecht 3 e Merwedehaven - 4,0 4, Dordrecht Dordtse Kil III 31,8-31, Dordrecht Julianahaven 2,5-2, Dordrecht Krabbepolder 7,8-7, Dordrecht Dordtse Kil IV - 65,0 65, Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht Ambachtsezoom - 13,2 13, Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht Antoniapolder 11,3-11, Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht Bedrijvenpark Langeweg 1,5 0,5 2, Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht formerly Noordoevers 2,0 2, Papendrecht Land van Matena 0,9-0, Sliedrecht Baanhoek-West - 3,0 3, Sliedrecht De Driehoek - 6,7 6, Zwijndrecht Bakestein 5,5-5, Zwijndrecht formerly Noordoevers 5,0 5, total 99,6 92,4 192, Source: Province of Zuid-Holland (municipality reports, data editing OCD) Note table 10 and 11: In order to determine the planning capacity in square meters we herefore use a range based on an actual and usual development density rate of 50% to 70% (so 1 hectare of land equals to m 2 gfa). 23