A Strong Industrial Sector Continues Impressive Run

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report OAKLAND METROPOLITAN AREA INDUSTRIAL Q2 A Strong Industrial Sector Continues Impressive Run > > Gross Absorption is 1,905,237 square feet year to date. > > Vacancy this quarter was 1.9 percent compared to 1.9 percent last quarter > > Net absorption (current quarter) is positive 122,208 square feet Much of the geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties present at the start of the new year has largely remained intact, while key economic indicators offer a mixed picture of the national economic recovery. The labor market is close to reaching full employment, beating job growth expectations every month of the quarter, and hovering near 10-year lows at 4.4 percent. Slowing wage growth suggests that the labor market still has room, however little, to improve. Weak growth in consumer spending amidst job and wage growth, high consumer confidence, and high stock prices, presents somewhat of a puzzle, with some suggesting that delays Market Indicators United States Unemployment Rate Year Nominal Interest Rate 2.31 Consumer Confidence Market Trends Relative to prior period Q2 Q3 * Vacancy Rental Rate Net Absorption Construction *Projected I-80/I-880 Corridor Overall Industrial Market $1.20 $1.08 $0.96 $0.84 $0.72 Summary Statistics Q2 I-80/I-880 Corridor Industrial Market Previous Quarter Current Quarter Overall Vacancy 1.9% 1.9% Quarterly Net Absorption 187, ,208 Construction Completed 143, ,483 Under Construction 1,580,650 2,127,046 Overall Asking Rents $0.95 $1.01 Overall Industrial Asking Rents $0.76 $0.81 Overall Warehouse Asking Rents $0.71 Overall R&D Flex Asking Rents $1.63 $1.69 Overall vacancy remained stable in the second quarter of ; rental rates increased from $0.95 to $1.01 NNN. Following the increase from first quarter to second quarter, we expect rents to stabilize with the potential of a slight increase. Overall vacancy rate should remain low and stable, as has been the trend for the past several quarters. U.S. National Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Labor Force Participation Rate Consumer Price Index Interest Rate - 10 Yr Treasury Business Confidence Index Consumer Confidence Index * Data Source: EDD Labor Market Information Division

2 in receiving tax refunds from the IRS left many with less spending money compared to previous years. Given that much of the Republican agenda has yet to be implemented, it is still too early to discern the President s impact on the economy or market trends, though not much has changed in the way of economists overall perception that the current economic cycle is still closer to the end than to the beginning. The fundamentals underpinning a booming industrial real estate sector seen in the first quarter have kept steady midway through the year. Nationwide, there is simply little to no industrial product available, with the big question now being whether or not construction can keep up with demand. 200 million square feet of industrial product is under construction in the US but there are no signs of overbuilding, as markets with the most speculative development also have the most absorption. Vacancy nationwide is at a record low and rents are at record highs. The e-commerce boom continues, fueling the push for regional distribution, which will continue to add warehouse/distribution product near seaports and inland ports. Recent developments like Amazon s acquisition of Whole Foods keep market observers guessing as to just how much more online sales will evolve and continue growing. Expect absorption to remain at current levels, vacancy to remain at record lows, and rents to push past record highs. Vacancy nationwide is at a record low and rents are at record highs. In terms of vacancy, rents, and absorption, industrial real estate in the I-880 Corridor has performed similarly well to those at the national level. Construction, on the other hand, seems to be playing catch up with demand, as evident by new construction being leased before buildings are delivered, as well as the overspill of tenants into the Central Valley. The only noteworthy construction completion this quarter for the I-880 Corridor was the 160,000 square foot warehouse at Williams Street, which leased to CEVA Logistics and e-commerce company Wayfair. Vacancy remained unchanged at 1.9 percent and asking rents edged up to $1.01 per square foot per month triple-net ( NNN ) San Leandro Street, Oakland, an industrial warehouse space on the market for lease, is one of the most significant buildings in size at 169,500 square feet. Boosted by a healthy 880,000 square feet of gross absorption, the year-to-date ( YTD ) net absorption has increased, ending the second quarter at 309,462 square feet compared to 187,434 square feet at the end of the first quarter. Hayward has seen especially strong activity, posting the most leasing activity YTD throughout all product types. Overall in the I-880 Corridor, warehouse product made up nearly 50 percent of all leasing activity, followed by industrial and R&D/flex at 35 and 15 percent, respectively. We can expect this trend to continue into the third quarter, as over 90 percent of buildings under construction are warehouse/distribution product, and the significant lease/sale transactions this quarter have shown a bias towards the same. Expect momentum in the I-880 Corridor to remain strong turning the corner into the second half of the year. 2 Oakland Research & Forecast Report Q2 Industrial Colliers International

3 Richmond Hercules, Pinole, Richmond, San Pablo and El Cerrito 1 Richmond Light Industrial Richmond s overall vacancy has decreased from 2.3 percent last quarter to 1.9 percent in the second quarter. No large blocks of space have come on the market, putting downward pressure on vacancy. Vacancy rates decreased from 2.8 percent to 1.6 percent for industrial product, decreased from 2.3 to 2.1 percent for warehouse/distribution product, and increased from 1.8 to 2.0 percent from R&D/flex product compared to the previous quarter. $0.82 $0.74 $0.66 $0.58 Due to the lack of space, there have not been major sale or lease transactions in the market this quarter. Richmond s gross absorption YTD, at 110,585 square feet, is the lowest of any submarket along the I-880 Corridor. As a result, net absorption YTD is almost neutral at 792 square feet, and does not seem poised to surpass the 445,693 YTD of net absorption seen at the end of last year. Vacancy should remain very tight in the next six months, which will limit the rise of net absorption throughout the second half of. 1 Richmond Warehouse/Distribution $0.72 $0.64 $0.56 Rental rates have gone up from $0.72 to $0.84 per square foot per month NNN due to an increase in both industrial and R&D/ flex asking rental rates. The absorption of industrial product with lower asking rates in the second quarter helps explain the jump from $0.62 to $0.79 per square foot per month NNN asking rental rates. Warehouse/distribution rates remained constant at $0.73 per square foot per month NNN. R&D/flex product increased from $0.95 to $1.07 per square foot per month NNN. 1 Richmond R&D/Flex $0.48 $0.40 $1.10 Even with the uptick, rents are attractive compared to those in neighboring submarkets and major markets, as seen by the migration of tenants from Berkeley, Emeryville, and Marin County into Richmond. With steady demand and low vacancy, rents should continue to go up in the next six months. $1.00 There continues to be a number of developers looking for land to buy and develop. This quarter, Pinole Properties LLC sold 60 acres of land at Pinole Point to General Realty LLC for $2.57 per square foot on the land (or $6.50 per square foot for the developable 26 acres) in a developer deal. Two noteworthy projects under construction are the 700,000 square foot Bay Area Logistics Center at Pinole Point and the 181,000 square foot IPT Richmond Logistics Center at 912 Harbour Way South, which is expected to be completed in $0.70 On the residential side, Shea Homes has begun construction on the 60-unit residential project at Waterline on the Bay, which is expected to be completed in the summer of. Going hand in hand with new residential development is the upcoming Richmond Ferry Terminal, which currently has its boats under construction. The project is expected to add to the attractiveness of the area for high-density housing upon completion. 3 Oakland Research & Forecast Report Q2 Industrial Colliers International

4 Oakland Oakland and Alameda Overall vacancy in Oakland has been squeezed from an already low 2.0 percent in the first quarter to 1.3 percent in the second quarter. Vacancy for industrial product (those besides warehouse and R&D/ flex) remained unchanged at 1.2 percent. Warehouse/distribution vacancy dropped from 3.5 percent to 1.5 percent. The continued decrease in vacancies was mostly driven by the 322,172 square feet of gross absorption in the second quarter, spread evenly across industrial and warehouse/distribution product types. foot per month due to pricier new product and lack of inventory. Overall asking rates for Oakland have increased from $0.71 to $0.78 per square foot per month from last quarter. At the moment, they remain on par with the rest of the East Bay. As the year progresses, rents should continue to rise due to demand, the pace of the economy, and the lack of new space. Oakland remains one of two submarkets in the I-880 Corridor with a negative YTD net absorption, though Oakland s net absorption has headed in a positive direction, whereas Union City s has continued to climb in a negative direction. Oakland s reversal in net absorption is mainly due to large blocks of space coming available at the start of the year, which are now slowly but steadily being absorbed. We can expect a similar trend going into the second half of the year as the Oakland Global Logistics Center nears completion. On the leasing side, 955 Kennedy Street, a 119,000 square foot manufacturing and distribution building which came on the market last quarter, was leased this quarter to electrical supply distributor Rexel, which came from Richmond. On the sale-side, Westcore Properties sold a 235,000 square foot warehouse/distribution building at 727 Kennedy Street to an owner/user from San Leandro in May. Asking NNN rental rates remained unchanged for industrial product type at $0.73 per square foot per month, while those of warehouse/ distribution jumped over 20 percent from $0.70 to $0.85 per square PROLOGIS GLOBAL LOGISTICS CENTER Prologis, the largest institutional owner and operator of industrial real estate globally, is nearing completion of Phase 1 of the most coveted industrial development the Bay Area has seen in decades at the former Oakland Army Base. Oakland Light Industrial Oakland Warehouse/Distribution $1.00 $1.00 $0.70 $ Oakland Research & Forecast Report Q2 Industrial Colliers International

5 San Leandro San Leandro and San Lorenzo Many tenants, especially food/beverage producers, are coming out of Oakland and are looking for a space range between 1000 to 5000 square feet in San Leandro. Many of these tenants are looking to consolidate their operations, as their production is split into multiple locations, while others are looking for new space to expand operations. Demand is still steady and comparable to the previous quarter and a year ago, with businesses continuing to call and look for space. Large blocks of space are rare and tenants may move further south on to Hayward. San Leandro Light Industrial $1.10 $0.98 $0.86 $0.74 $0.62 Overall vacancy rate remains fairly constant and historically low, with a half percentage increase from 1.2 to 1.7 percent from the previous quarter. Warehouse and R&D/flex vacancy remained essentially unchanged, whereas industrial product vacancy grew from 1.7 to 2.9 percent from the first quarter, driven mostly by 80,900 square feet at 2002 Davis Street and 12,940 square feet at 1800 Williams Street coming online. Vacancy rates should not have any large changes in the coming months, but industrial product vacancy has the potential to decrease moderately if any of the larger spaces that came on the market this quarter get absorbed. San Leandro Warehouse/Distribution $0.74 $0.68 $0.62 Rental rates remain steady at $0.75 per square foot per month NNN, and could increase in the foreseeable future based on the lack of available space. Tenants continue to migrate to the East Bay from the South Bay and West Bay areas chasing lower rental rates, with some tenants in the I-880 Corridor moving to other areas like the Central Valley for even lower rents. 1 San Leandro R&D/Flex $0.56 $1.30 CEVA Logistics and Wayfair leased a total of 161,483 square feet at the Comstock Industrial Center at Williams Street, the first new Class A warehouse development in San Leandro in ten years and one of the few larger warehouse/distribution spaces that completed construction this quarter. $1.16 $1.02 $0.88 The San Leandro Business Center at 100 Halcyon Drive, which will consist of three buildings totaling 552,674 square feet, is still in the planning stages and is expected to be available in Overton Moore s 2000 Marina Boulevard will be a two-story 296,698 square foot last-mile warehouse/distribution development represented by Colliers, and is also expected to be complete in $0.74 Work has begun on the San Leandro Tech Campus ( SLTC ) 2.0 next to the new OSISoft world headquarters building by the San Leandro BART station. The SLTC 2.0, which will be identical to the one finished in October of last year, will feature a six story, 132,000 square foot building next to San Leandro BART and is scheduled to be finished by September Oakland Research & Forecast Report Q2 Industrial Colliers International

6 Hayward Hayward s Industrial Crescent continues to attract growing startups that have transitioned from the R&D stage to production of new products, including highvolume batteries and biomedical devices. In addition, the city s Business Concierge program provides personalized assistance to help get new businesses up to speed and running strong. Hayward Light Industrial $0.84 $0.78 Overall vacancy edged down slightly from 2.0 to 1.9 percent from the first quarter. Industrial product vacancy fell from 1.7 to 1.6 percent, warehouse/distribution product vacancy rose from 0.8 percent to 1.3 percent, and R&D/flex product vacancy fell from 7.6 to 7.1 percent. Hayward has the most vacant square footage available (856,113 square feet, which is roughly 400,000 square feet more than the runner-up submarket of San Leandro) out of all submarkets along the I-880, and with spillover from tenants looking for space in San Leandro, vacancy could very well drop in the second half of the year. Hayward Warehouse/Distribution $0.72 $0.66 $0.75 $0.70 Overall NNN asking rates have ticked up from $0.93 to $0.94 per square foot per month. Industrial asking rents have gone up from $0.82 to $0.87 per square foot per month, warehouse/ distribution asking rents saw a one cent increase to $0.76 per square foot per month, and R&D/flex asking rents saw a two cent increase to $1.14 per square foot per month. All in all, rents have stayed relatively stable, and should continue to remain so, as overall rents in Hayward are already among the highest in submarkets along the I-880 Corridor and have remained essentially flat since the end of the. 1 Hayward R&D/Flex $0.65 $0.55 $1.30 Of all submarkets along the I-880 Corridor, Hayward has had the highest YTD net absorption for, with 323,221 square feet. The second quarter s leasing activity of 187,542 square feet was not as robust as the 542,896 square feet of gross absorption seen in the first quarter, but was nevertheless enough to propel Hayward to the highest YTD gross absorption numbers of any submarket in the I-880 at the midway point of. The 728,253 square feet of gross absorption YTD in Hayward is nearly twice as much as the second most active submarket, Oakland, and is led by warehouse/ distribution product type. 1 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.70 Several lease transactions took place in the second quarter, however they were mostly comprised of smaller spaces with the exception of a 39,360 square foot deal at Forbes Street with Argos Material Distribution. The remaining deals were all for spaces under 20,000 square feet. On the sale-side, MDC Real Estate Investments, LLC sold a 27,461 square foot warehouse building at Cabot Boulevard to the Kevin Youngblood Trust (DBA USGA, Inc.). Looking ahead, Hayward looks well positioned to continue its strong leasing activity through the end of the year. 6 Oakland Research & Forecast Report Q2 Industrial Colliers International

7 Union City Union City s overall vacancy has gone up slightly from 2.3 to 2.6 percent, though still remains very low. There is now no R&D/flex product available, whereas industrial vacancy decreased by 0.2 percent and warehouse/distribution vacancy increased from 3.5 to 4.4 percent. Vacancy could potentially go down if and when Dowe Avenue (181,569 square feet) and Whipple Avenue (130,140 square feet) are leased, as they currently make up roughly 75 percent of the vacant space available. Average asking rental rates rose from $0.75 to $0.85 per square foot per month NNN. While very high, the current asking rates have not surpassed those in the third and fourth quarter of, when rents were at all-time highs of $0.98 and $1.05 per square foot per month NNN, respectively. The quarteron-quarter growth in asking rates was driven entirely by the increase of warehouse/distribution product from $0.72 to $0.86 per square foot per month NNN, as R&D/flex had no asking rates and industrial asking rates remained the same from the previous quarter. Rents should stay the same over the next six months and should remain very similar to Union City s competitive submarkets: Hayward and San Leandro. 1 Union City Light Industrial Union City Warehouse/Distribution $0.82 $0.74 $0.66 $0.58 $2.00 $1.70 $1.40 $1.10 The increase in the already large negative absorption numbers this quarter can be explained by two larger spaces that became available Union City R&D/Flex $1.50 $1.20 Union City s YTD net absorption remained relatively unchanged at negative 311,965 square feet compared to negative 265,730 square feet in the first quarter. The increase in the already large negative absorption numbers this quarter can be explained by two larger spaces that became available, including 130,140 square feet at Whipple Road and 36,000 square feet at Central Avenue. In addition, gross absorption for the quarter was unspectacular at 35,501 square feet, with four direct lease deals signed. Notably, Dpack, Inc. inked a deal at Ahern Avenue for 14,400 square feet of warehouse space. Tenants are mainly coming from within the market or the Peninsula to chase cheaper rents, and the current story is by now a familiar one of low supply and high demand -- anything functional that comes on the market will get immediate attention. 1 $0.30 $ Oakland Research & Forecast Report Q2 Industrial Colliers International

8 Newark Overall vacancy rates are up from the previous quarter from 2.5 to 3.4 percent, with all product types registering a jump. This is still between the 2.9 and 3.9 percent range that vacancy has been hovering between for the last two years, and we expect vacancy rates to continue staying within this margin with either stagnant movement or a slight increase due to tight market conditions. Newark Light Industrial $1.25 $1.10 $0.95 Rental rates are down slightly from last quarter but still remain high due to lack of available product, staying at or above $2.00 per square foot per month for the past three quarters. Rents should stay relatively flat in the second half of the year. Newark remains more affordable than the Peninsula or Silicon Valley, but is more expensive than the north I-880 Corridor, particularly for industrial and R&D/flex product, whereas warehouse asking rates are comparable. Lack of product and displacement from redevelopment activity in other markets are additional drivers moving other tenants to Newark. There is interest in Newark in terms of investment and development activity, but the small footprint and lack of developable land creates limited appeal. Newark Warehouse/Distribution $0.65 $0.92 $0.85 $0.78 Lack of product and displacement from redevelopment activity in other markets are additional drivers moving other tenants to Newark. $0.71 $0.64 $0.57 Mission Linen Supply has their new facility under construction at 6590 Central Avenue. The total footprint of the completed facility will be 156,666 square feet separated into three buildings. Mission Linen is making modifications to the existing 46,003 square foot building and constructing a new 118,000 square foot laundry facility and a 3,000 square foot fleet maintenance building Filbert Street, a 50,095 square foot manufacturing/warehouse facility, came on the market, moving the vacancy rate up Newark R&D/Flex $2.80 $2.50 $2.20 $1.90 $1.60 $1.30 was not a great year for Newark in terms of net absorption, with each quarter s YTD net absorption logging large negative numbers. so far has been a different story, with both quarters this year registering positive net absorption YTD. As of the mid-way point through, net absorption YTD stands at 189,799 square feet. Expect leasing activity to remain steady. $ Oakland Research & Forecast Report Q2 Industrial Colliers International

9 Significant Lease Activity RICHMOND Rexel 955 Kennedy Street, Oakland May 119,000 - Direct 80 OAKLAND Ceva Logistics 2380 Williams Street, San Leandro Jun 81,138 - Direct Cal Cargo 2816 W Winton Avenue Bldg. 2, Hayward Apr 82,157 - Sublease SAN LEANDRO 580 Argos Materials Co Forbes Street, Hayward Jun 39,360 - DIrect SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAYWARD UNION CITY NEWARK Significant Sale Activity PROPERTY ADDRESS SALE DATE SIZE BUYER TYPE Giant Road, Richmond June Acres (land) General Realty Group Inc. Development 2707 W Winton Avenue, Hayward May 23.4 Acres (land) IPT Acquisitions, LLC Development 3536 Arden Road, Hayward June 72,774 DCT Industrial Investment Cabot Boulevard, Hayward June 27,461 Kevin Youngblood Trust Investment 9 Oakland Research & Forecast Report Q2 Industrial Colliers International

10 Market Comparisons INDUSTRIAL MARKET SUBTYPE BLDGS TOTAL INVENTORY DIRECT VACANT DIRECT VACANCY RATE SUBLEASE VACANT SUBLEASE VACANCY RATE TOTAL VACANT VACANCY RATE CURRENT QUARTER VACANCY RATE PRIOR QUARTER NET ABSORPTION CURRENT QTR NET ABSORPTION YTD COMPLETED CURRENT QTR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LEASING ACTIVITY CURRENT QTR AVG ASKING NNN RICHMOND Industrial 231 4,920,275 79, , ,207 68, ,955 $0.79 Warehouse 49 4,899, , , ,163 (41,365) - 889,346 10,163 $0.73 R&D/Flex 53 3,393,153 24, % 42, , (6,271) (26,206) ,237 $1.07 Total ,212, , , , % 2. 60, ,346 81,355 $0.84 OAKLAND Industrial ,664, , , ,004 (195,129) ,057 $0.73 Warehouse ,990, , , ,964 70, , ,575 $0.85 R&D/Flex Total 1,034 33,655, , , ,968 (124,555) - 256, ,632 $0.78 SAN LEANDRO Industrial ,902, , , , % 1.7% (142,871) 154, ,588 $0.77 Warehouse ,704,891 39, , , % , , , , ,734 $0.67 R&D/Flex ,380 6, % , % 0.7% - (1,158) - - 1,422 $1.14 Total ,454, , , , % 1. 28, , , , ,744 $0.75 HAYWARD Industrial ,581, , , , % 20,426 (6,696) - 93, ,284 $0.87 Warehouse ,344, , , , (89,446) 184, ,319 39,360 $0.76 R&D/Flex 109 4,502, , , , ,195 54, ,898 $1.14 Total 1,128 42,429, , % 133, , % (49,825) 232, , ,542 $0.94 UNION CITY Industrial 168 7,883,678 85, , ,664 (10,349) - - 7,263 $0.78 Warehouse 87 7,488, , , (66,440) (311,709) ,697 $0.86 R&D/Flex , ,541 10, ,541 $0.00 Total ,242, , , (46,235) (311,965) ,501 $0.85 NEWARK Industrial 87 4,262,847 57, , , (27,121) 138, ,792 $1.18 Warehouse 32 3,923,778 50, , (50,095) 5, $0.86 R&D/Flex 39 3,082, , , , (18,433) 45, ,022 $2.53 Total ,268, , , , (95,649) 189, ,814 $2.08 MARKET TOTAL Industrial 2,626 68,215,222 1,016, , ,117, (75,691) 149,122-93, ,939 $0.81 Warehouse ,351, , , ,017, % 199,867 76, ,483 2,033, ,529 R&D/Flex ,696, , , % 660, (1,968) 83, ,120 $1.69 Total 3, ,262,861 2,468, % 328, ,796, % 1.9% 122, , ,483 2,127, ,588 $1.01 QUARTERLY COMPARISONS AND TOTALS Q2-17 3, ,262,861 2,468, % 328, ,796, % 1.9% 122, , ,483 2,127, ,588 $1.01 Q1-17 3, ,101,378 2,478, % 278, ,757, % , , ,373 2,133,324 1,023,550 $0.95 Q4-16 3, ,401,188 2,029, , ,244, ,306 1,209, ,168 1,252,090 $1.12 Q3-16 3, ,409,822 2,570, , ,930, (344,849) 482, ,938 1,916,693 $0.92 Q2-16 3, ,409,822 2,387, % 198, ,585, , , ,938 2,056,544 $0.92 Q1-16 3, ,409,82 2,794, % 221, ,016, , , ,938 1,823,35 MARKET CONTACTS: Ken Meyersieck Executive Vice President Managing Director Oakland ken.meyersieck@colliers.com CA License No Russell Chang, CPRC Research Analyst II Oakland russell.chang@colliers.com William Chui Research Analyst Assistant Oakland william.chui@colliers.com Copyright Colliers International. Colliers International Oakland The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has 1999 Harrison Street, Suite 1750 been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. Oakland, CA United States No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. colliers.com/oakland 10 Oakland North American Research Research & Forecast & Forecast Report Report Q4 Q Industrial Office Colliers Market International Outlook Colliers International