Transit Villages: Success & Sustainability

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1 Transit Villages: Success & Sustainability Martin E. Robins Director Emeritus Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center NJ State League of Municipalities Convention November 17, 2010

2 New Jersey TOD Successes Are Numerous

3 Essex St (Jersey City ), Hudson Pointe, 131 Dudley St

4 Essex St (Jersey City), Sugar House rehab, 174 Washington St

5 Rahway - Carriage City Across from station 16-story, 385,000 SF Mixed use 102 room Indigo Hotel 209 condos (now rentals) 1 st & 2 nd floor retail Shared parking, adjacent parking deck

6 Park Square A block from station Two buildings, mixed-use residential over retail & 2-bedroom rentals, 6000 SF retail 205 parking spaces Brownfield cleanup PILOT (5 year, 20% abatement) Phase 1 complete and rented

7 South Orange Retail under station leased by Village, 1992 Redevelopment plans, 1994 Designated 1999 Station stores renovations, 2001 Impact of Midtown Direct service 33 minute trip to NY Penn Station 3,400 daily passengers

8 South Orange Projects Gaslight Commons, 2002 First substantial TOD project 200 rentals The Avenue at South Orange, story mixed-use 79 condos 4,200 ground floor retail

9 Cranford, Cranford Crossing

10 TOD is Here to Stay & Thrive (despite demise of ARC)

11 Demographic Trends to Watch Aging Baby Boomers: start turning 65 in 2011 Echo Boomers: the Social Network generation Immigrants: driver of population growth Household sizes: getting smaller

12 Boomers and their Children Lead the Charge of Household Growth Projected Shift in Household Numbers, by Age Group, from 2010 to 2020 Households (Millions) High Projection Low Projection -4 Source: State of the Nation s Housing, Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, 2010

13 Housing Markets Near Transit Have Performed Better in Great Recession 2008: 9 of the 10 strongest. housing markets in New Jersey were towns with direct rail service to Manhattan 2010: median prices increase 5.7% for towns with rail, vs. 2.7% decline in all Northern NJ suburbs Source: Rutgers University; Otteau Valuation Group, Inc. Top Maplewood, Bottom - Montclair, NJ : towns with direct rail service to Midtown Manhattan with strong housing markets

14 Livable Communities in the Next Normal: Housing Trends to Watch in something echo boomers want to experience more vibrant urban areas where they can build careers, and their aging baby boomer parents look for greater convenience in downscaled lifestyles. Downtown Silver Spring Driving costs and lost time make outer suburbs less economical, while the bighouse wave dissipates in the Era of Less - ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2011 Lowertown, St. Paul

15 Conclusions Evidence that TOD Boosts Sustainability

16 Recent Hudson County Waterfront Survey Research In leading NJ urban market (mostly 1-2 bedroom apartments) availability of transit is crucial to residential location decision Distance to transit one of 3 most important factors in selecting residence 85%: public transit was very important to residential location decision 90%: current residence is a lot more valuable because of transit proximity 2/3 have one car only; only 1/6 use car for work trip

17 VTC TOD Barriers Study Method: Surveyed residents living both within ½ mile and 2 miles of rail stations Findings and Policy Implications: - Overall, impacts of TOD on schools, local auto traffic and parking not nearly as significant as public thinks - Per-household impact of TOD on local school districts is much lower in developments near rail stations -Smaller households seek smaller housing (e.g., 1 & 2 bedroom apts), own fewer autos and drive less - Parking policies at TODs should be reformed to reduce maximums, permitting design of higher densities

18 HOUSING NEAREST TO TRANSIT HAS BEEN FOUND TO HOLD VALUE AND EVEN COMMAND APREMIUM According to a Columbia University study, between 1993 and 2003, residential properties within one-half mile of stations served by MidTOWN DIRECT trains (oneseat ride service to midtown Manhattan along the Morris, Essex, Boonton and Montclair Rail Lines) increased in value by 113 percent (adjusted for inflation), while properties farther away from these stations experienced only an 80 percent increase.

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